An Eye on the Elections

Here’s a look at national races right now!
by Charlie Leck

Here are the races that most interest me right now – that are important to those of us who call ourselves progressives…

California Senate Race
Barbara Boxer continues to carry a very minimal lead (2 percentage points) over her Republican and female opponent, Carly Fiorina. In honesty, this one has got to be called a toss-up.

Wisconsin Senate Race
Russ Feingold, one of the finest senators in the history of this nation, continues to trail the Republican, Ron Johnson, but the lead is slightly less than a week ago (7 percentage points). Feingold continues to work hard and progressives are hoping for a huge surge of young voters who will carry Feingold to victory. Likely, it’s dreaming! There’s an interesting story in today’s local paper from the McClatchy News Service that discusses Wisconsin’s shift from a liberal-state-of-mind to a much more conservative one. 74 percent of Wisconsin voters called themselves liberal or moderate in 2006. Now, only 53 percent label themselves as such. 47 percent of voters now call themselves conservatives. Too bad! For years, Wisconsin has been the leading liberal state in the nation and I’ve admired it so for that.

Nevada Senate Race
Harry Reid the Democratic leader of the Senate is in the fight of his life. At the moment, the race is dead even. Again, this race may depend on the young and their willingness to get out and vote. Obama will try to raise the dead out there. Maybe!

Colorado Senate Race
Most experts are calling this race between the Republican nut-case, Ken Buck, and the incumbent Democrat, Michael Bennet, a toss-up. I think it looks dangerously like a significant lead of 4 or 5 points for the Republicans.

Washington Senate Race
Patty Murray, whose fund-raisers call constantly, looking for dough, is in a tough race against her Republican opponent, Dino Rossi. Rasmussen gives Murray only a 3 point lead in this one, which would make it a statistical toss-up. CNN/Time, however, has Murray with an 8 point lead. I’d go into utter depression if Murray loses out there.

Illinois Senate Race
Well, one wonders which crook will steal the election in Illinois this year. What a reputation that state has in matters politik. Remember how difficult it was to pronounce the name of the state’s corrupt Democratic governor – what was it? – Bleh-goy-O-vich! Well, try out the Democratic candidate for the Senate, Mr. Alexi Giannoulias. All recent polls there show the race is a dead-even tie. The Republican candidate for the senate seat is Mark Kirk. At one time, Giannoulias had an 8 point lead in this race.

West Virginia Senate Race
There is no incumbent in West Virginia. The race there is dead-even. The Republican candidate is John Raese and the Democrat is Joe Manchin. Raese boasts that he is a life-time member of the National Rifle Association (naturally) and a conservative businessman. He runs and owns most of Greer Industries in West Virginia and he also has deep roots in the communications/entertainment field. Manchin is currently the governor of West Virginia. He played football at the University of West Virginia, worked in business and served in the State Legislature for almost 14 years. He’s a pilot and an outdoorsman who hunts and fishes and rides his motorcycle. He and his wife have 3 children.

Control of the House of Representatives
It would take some kind of miracle for the Democrats to retain control of the House of Representatives. Right now the Republicans have commanding leads over many Democratic incumbents. There will, however, be some major surprises for both parties in these races. In Minnesota, it looks like incumbents will win in all House races. That means the reelection of the notoriously nutty Michel Bachman, probably the worst member of the House for the last four years. Too bad, but her opponent has just not shown enough energy or charisma to win over the fence-sitters.

At the moment, it looks like 141 House seats are certain for Democrats while the Republicans are counting on 162 certain seats. It will take 218 seats to control the House. There are 40 races out there that are absolute toss-ups. Adding in the races leaning toward them, to control the Republicans would only have to take half of those toss-up races and they probably will.

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Trying to Understand the Polls

Drawing by Charlie Leck inspired by his friend, and reader, Morrow!

The signals are really mixed, depending on who is sending them!
by Charlie Leck

Here’s a look at some of the races I’ve decided to watch around the nation! I look at several polls when I advise you of these results and I’ll warn you when there are significant discrepancies. As they say, “read ‘em and weep!”

Minnesota Governor
The most recent polls vary greatly here – all the way from a Mark Dayton lead of 11 points to a Tom Emmer lead of 1 point. Who’s to be believed? It’s Rasmussen Reports that gives Emmer a 1 point lead. They are generally a Republican polling organization. I like to watch them. I like to analyze them. However, I don’t thoroughly trust them. There is no way Tom Emmer has a current lead in this race and there is no way Tom Horner, the Independent Party candidate is as far back at Rasmussen says – with only 9 percent support of those polled. Republicans are falling away from the radical Emmer in droves. It’s likely that the Minnesota Public Radio (University of Minnesota) Poll and the local newspaper poll (Star-Tribune) are closer to the realities. Here’s an averaging of what those two polls say:

Mark Dayton (Democrat) 38.5%
Tom Emmer (Republican) 28.5%
Tom Horner (Independent) 17.0%

I’m sure you notice that leaves about 16% of potential voters undecided. That’s big. That’s the target of all three candidates and enough to have a major impact on our North Country election.

However, here’s a caveat. These polls are a few days old now and Horner, in my estimation, is pulling voters away from each of the major party candidates. It’s unclear right now how many of those voters are Democrats. I think Dayton and Emmer are static where they are and Horner is pulling support in in rather big numbers. My bet is that the next polls will show him somewhere between 21% and 25% support.

Washington U.S. Senate
Only Rasmussen gives the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate a lead out in Washington State. Averaging the other leading polls shows Democrat Patty Murray with about 51.5% of those who plan to vote. That makes this very important race, in reality, a toss-up.

Wisconsin U.S. Senate
I consider Russ Feingold one of the really bright stars in the Democratic Party and an extraordinary U.S. Senator. He’s in a wild fight in Wisconsin for his seat. At the moment, he’s trailing Ron Johnson big time. Give Johnson an 8 point lead in our neighbor state. The White House doesn’t like what’s going on in this one and is now starting to throw some campaign support toward Feingold. Look for the President to make a couple trips out there to try to help.

Colorado U.S. Senate
It looks like Mike Bennet, the Democrat incumbent is going to lose this race. It means another talented guy is going to bite the dust. He trails the Republican, Ken Buck, by 7 points out there in the Mountain State and there aren’t a lot of undecideds to fight over. I’m calling a Buck victory out there. Damn!

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
This state also looks gloomy for Democrats. Joe Sestak is looking weak in a dozen polls out there. I’d say he’s down by 6 points and there are not many undecided voters there either.

Kentucky U.S. Senate
Rand Paul, the darling of the Tea Party, has a solid 5 or 6 point lead in the Bluegrass State. The Democrat, Jack Conway, hasn’t been able to dent the lead that Paul is holding. Every single poll has Rand with 49% of the likely voters right now. Only one poll (SurveyUSA) puts Conway anywhere near Paul (and I don’t think much of that polling system).

California Toss-Up for Governor
Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R) are in a dead-heat in the California Governor race. CNN has Brown with a 9 point lead, but that’s too much of an aberration. Count on it: It’s a toss-up.

Republican Victories
It looks like the Republicans will win U.S Senate races in Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio.

Democratic Victories
The Democrats will probably win in California (Barbara Boxer) and in New York (Kirsten Gillibrand).

Will Republicans take over control of the Senate?
At the moment I’d say the Democrats are going to lose control of the Senate but it will be very close. All of the following, toss-up states, must go to the Democrats for them to retain control: Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, Washington and West Virginia.

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Whig Party Shattered (1859)!

What is going on with political parties in our day?
by Charlie Leck

It is a beautiful and sun-shiny Wednesday morning after a dull, chilly, grey and day long rain yesterday. I'm working on Friday's blog. It will require some reading and checking.

I find myself wading through our local newspapers and significant on-line news sources, trying to figure out what the primaries of Tuesday might mean in the longer run, and most particularly about the coming November elections. At the same time, I am reading my text books for the on-line Yale course I am monitoring (Civil War & Reconstruction), and the emphasis right now is on the incredible national elections of the 1856 and 1860. It sounds crazy; that is, juxtaposing these events – antebellum America and Tea Party America – against one another; nevertheless, I am having fun doing it.

As for the primaries on Tuesday, 8 June 2010
I see small glimmerings that the Tea Party may not be as forcefully influential on voters as they hoped, or as I feared, they would be. I see that out of both Arkansas and California. Carly Fiorina won the Republican race in California for the right to go up against Barbara Boxer in the November election for the U.S. Senate seat. Fiorina, a former CEO at Hewlett-Packard, beat two candidates, one of which the Tea Party had been touting.

However, in Nevada, the candidate backed by the Tea Party, Sharron Angle, defeated the two established Republicans who were running against her. Here, if examined closely, one can see how the two traditional Republicans split their supporters and Angle was able to come slipping through the divide. She’ll now have to run against Senator Harry Reid in the general election. That will be a race worth watching and I believe it will be incredibly close. It’s interesting that part of Angle’s platform is a privatization of Social Security. Can you, if you receive Social Security payments, image what would have happened to Social Security over the last ten years – since 9-11 – had the system been privatized? She favors phasing out Social Security and that puts the Senior vote in Nevada very much in Mr. Reid's favor. Ms. Angle also approves of processing nuclear wastes at Yuka Mountain, which is highly unfavorable to Nevada residents of all political stripes. Senator Reid suddenly looks like the moderate centrist candidate in that election.

In South Carolina, Ms. Nikki Haley, a Republican and the Tea Party candidate won in the primary election for the right to run for Governor. Again, she was running against three other Republicans and those votes were badly split and it is difficult to get a reading of the Tea Party’s effectiveness. She’ll now need to prevail in a run-off election before taking on the Democrat in the general election. I remind myself that this is South Carolina and the Republican candidate, whoever it turns out to be, is most likely going to win there. It is difficult to use this state as a measuring stick of the Tea Party’s strength. If their candidate doesn’t win in this run-off it will be an incredible blow to them.

The side-story in this gubernatorial battle in South Carolina is that it is a race to replace Governor Mark Sanford, famous for his extramarital sexcapades. During the campaign, Ms. Haley had to overcome accusations that she has been having a couple of extramarital affairs herself. My, oh my! It is interesting to me that Ms. Haley is of India-American descent and might become, if she is classified as such, the first non-white Governor of the state. This will be an interesting race to watch over the summer months. Haley will have to beat Congressman J. Gresham Barrett in the run-off. The winner of that race will certainly win the general election in November. The runoff will gather attention because Haley is endorsed by Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.

Sometime ago, I and many others were referring to the Tea Party as a divergent, third party movement. It is become clearer that it is really only another wing of the very conservative Republican Party movement. Though she would deny it, Sarah Palin is the Tea Party’s symbolic, if not de facto, leader. I think the movement’s success will very much depend on the coming success of Palin. And, I can’t personally imagine that the GOP is going to be willing to put its future into the hands of a wing-nut from Alaska. Of course, if her candidates win big this November, the Party big-wigs may have no choice in the matter at all. On the other hand, if the Tea Party fails to look good in this election, the Republican slot for President will be wide open once again.

The Tea Party, I believe, would have little influence in American politics if it weren’t for the constant fueling and refueling the crazies in the broadcast media keep giving it. It is like hundreds of millions of dollars in free advertising. This is a certain sign of what American politics has become and who controls it. Does the future of American politics belong to Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh?

In the 1850s, the United States saw the collapse of the great Whig Party and the birth of a Republican Party (far different than the modern version) that would take control of the nation and elect Abraham Lincoln in 1860. Back then, what we saw was the creation of a liberal Republican Party and its movement to ally itself with the northern rush to abolish slavery.

The future of the Republican Party
The stakes are high for Republicans. In the last twenty years the Grand Old Party has changed in extraordinary ways. It has become the party that tried to create a home for moderates, true conservatives and radical, right-wing extremists. Can a major political party survive such schizophrenia? It will be one of the interesting developments to watch over the next decade -- and that starts this November.

This comment, for instance, comes from a New York Times article on the current confusion in the Republican Party:

“...Republican leaders will have to answer the question some critics are already asking, which is how they managed to let a promising election season get so mightily out of control.”

Gail Collins in a NY Times opinion column suggests that election may be about much more than voter anger this year, and her point is interesting:

“We have been entertaining ourselves with theories about how this election year is going to be all about voter anger. Or Washington insiders. Or health care. Or TARP. But, really, it’s going to be about money. Gobs of cash falling on campaigns like tar balls on a beach.”

Lots of political candidates have been spending lots of money in the primaries. The two women who won the California primaries for Governor and the U.S. Senate spent over 100 million dollars of their own money on primary elections.

David Brooks, again in the NY Times, opines that red states seem to be getting redder, while the Tea Party is have trouble making progress in the blue states. The Republicans winning primaries in those states appear to be moderates.

Of course, as I can hear many of you saying, there is a whole summer and a good part of the autumn for campaigning yet; and none of us no where this thing is going to go. These questions will effect that…

How big a hit will Obama and the Dems take on the BP oil spill?

What kind of problems will arise in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Will Obama’s army of workers and donors show up in this election?

Will Obama’s campaigning make a difference and will candidates want his help?

What impact will Sarah Palin have? Or the Tea Party, for that matter?

Could the Tea Party methodology of conflict and anger actually hurt Republicans?

Will the economy show some improvement into the autumn?

Stay tuned because it is going to be a very interesting and an extremely important election that will, as did the elections of 1858 and 1860, define America for many decades to come.

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This comment came in from South Carolina and it is worth posting here:
"Charlie, Nikki Haley is a Sarah Palin with brains, says one of our good Democrat friends here in Aiken. Even more interesting in SC is the defeat of Congressman Vic Rawl, by a totally unknown man - 32 years old, and unemployed. ...Tony (man who identified N. Haley with S. Palin) thinks the Republicans had a Big part in supplying him (I can't even think of his name right now) with the necessary funds to get in the race - and somehow dug up all of his votes. Crazy indeed.
Donna"