Showing posts with label Election will test Tea Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election will test Tea Party. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Tea Party ain’t no Party!



Be sure you understand, because the name they have chosen tends to fool one, that the Tea Party is not a political party and, because of the nature of political parties, never will be.
by Charlie Leck

Somewhere along the way the Republicans – that is, the pure and original type Republicans – have come to realize that the Tea Party is not a division of, or a part of, the Republican Party. And, with this knowledge in-hand, they have begun to declare their independence from Tea Partiers. Now the Republican Party is seeking to find its way back to a position of strength and credibility.

And I have come to realize that the Tea Party isn’t really a political party. Knowing this makes it easier to understand the Tea Party; and this calms some of the fears I had about it. Now I realize that the Tea Party’s big moment is past. It has already reached its pinnacle and it is now plummeting back down to some realistic place as a “once was movement” in American politics.

What is a political party?
One needs to understand the nature of a political party to see why the Tea Party isn’t one. I’ve been quite significantly involved in party politics since 1968. Comically, it was a rebellion against the sitting and contented Democratic Party that brought me into it. No need to tell the story here. It is enough to tell you that I was elected the Democratic Party chairman of a ward on the southside of Minneapolis and as a delegate to the state convention of the Democratic Party. In those two positions I began to understand what political parties really were and why they exist.

Political parties make sense and, I believe, that they should be seen as essentially necessary. Edmund Burke (1729-1797) played a significant role in founding the contemporary political party system in America. For not a second did Burke believe that parties could be perfect instruments. However, he did believe that parties could encourage a certain level of cooperation among people with common goals (key word is common). He thought they would encourage political leadership to rise above their own interests and factional interests to work for a common good through agreed upon and realistic strategies.

In the biography by Jesse Norman, Burke is depicted as a man of great political strength who believed government could be held to account by organized political parties. Yet, Burke also realized that such parties should never become overly partisan. If they did, Burke felt that they would then fail to understand the broader public interests that were at stake and they would lose their power.

Using Burke’s concept as a means to define political party puts the contemporary Tea Party outside that definition. The Tea Party, which began as a more open libertarian movement, has grown to be a closed and completely doctrinally partisan organization. In other words, there is no room within the Tea Party for dissenters and non-believers. This doctrine, however, does not match that of the standard Republican Party.

I came into the politics as part of a very strong protest movement against the War in Vietnam. In some sense, there was an idea that we could take over the Democratic Party and force it to view the war as we did. Instead, because our convictions were so singularly partisan, we merely split the party, weakened it and allowed for the 1968 election of Richard Nixon (over Hubert Humphrey) to the presidency. This, of course, as seen through the eyes of unbiased historians, was a disaster for America that set us off course for a couple of decades.

It is the kind of thing that the Tea Party is now doing to America. We will see some of the results of this in yesterday’s election results…

I need to make these notes… In Virginia, working on the gubernatorial campaign of his good friend, Terry McAuliffe, Bill Clinton recently said: “There are more of us who believe that working together is better than constant conflict.” That is the basis for the political party system. It clearly defines the nature of a political party. And Clinton has proven himself one of the most insightful commentators in the world on politics and politicians.

McAuliffe won big in Virginia yesterday because Virginia has a seriously weaken Republican Party, which use to be the majority party in the state. It no longer is by a long shot and isn’t even when one combines the party regulars with members of the Tea Party. And, the Tea Party is clearly responsible for this significant damage to the Virginia GOP. It is happening elsewhere.

In New Jersey, Republican Governor Chris Christie easily won reelection. This in a state where only 38 percent of voters favor the Republican brand of politics. The Washington Post says this is “much more about the Chris Christie brand than the Republican brand.” It is true that Christie has kept himself clear of association with less than moderate Republicans.

Even in Alabama, a Tea Party candidate in a congressional primary lost out to a Republican moderate last night. The moderate Bradley Byrne defeat the Tea Party backed Dean Young. It provides significant insight to what is happening in American politics.

[As the day goes on, I’ll add more relevant examples – if there are any – from yesterday’s election results as they become known.]

What the Republican Party is discovering is that it needs more moderate voices and less intolerant, loud, boisterous and radically conservative voices.

A political party without a clear and reasonably common goal is not really a political party.

The Tea Party is a renegade movement and not a true political party. It is similar to the Eugene McCarthy movement of 1968. To this day, I believe the McCarthy movement was correct in its ideology back then, but it failed to establish itself in politics because it did not allow debate, discussion and compromise on its issues. It was only a very short time before I was eased out of my position as ward chairman and state delegate (and I can now see why). The Democratic Party had to return to its more lenient and flexible roots or die. Were we McCarthyites responsible for Hubert Humphrey’s election loss? Yes! We were obstinate and inflexible and clearly indicated it was our way or no way. We got no way!




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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Appears Dems will Lose Control of the House


The House will be run by the Republicans and they have a chance to take over the Senate as well!
by Charlie Leck

Nate Silver, New York Times political analyst has pessimistic news for progressives. He sees Republicans gaining ground, giving themselves a “decent” chance of taking over the Senate and an improvement in races for the House. He gives the GOP a 72 percent chance of taking over the House.

In the Minnesota gubernatorial race, Silver gives Mark Dayton, the Democrat, a 72 percent chance of winning. In Minnesota it looks like all incumbents will retain their seats in the House and, of course, we have no contests for Senate seats.

In Wisconsin, testing 8 polling services, Silver sees a defeat of Russ Feingold as nearly certain. That’s a dagger to my heart and really bad news for Democrats.

In California, all polls point to a Barbara Boxer win in her Senate race. The Democrat, Senator Wyden, will win in Oregon and it appears Washington’s Democrat, Patty Murry, will win up in that corner of the nation. In New York, Schumer will win big for the Democrats and it looks good for progressives in the eastern states of Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Vermont. Hawaii will also return the Democrat, Daniel Inouye, to the Senate.

Here are the states, in addition to Wisconsin, where Democrats now hold the Senate seat that will probably change over to Republicans… Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

Toss-up races for the Senate include Nevada, where Senate Leader, Harry Reid, is trailing right now by a point or two. Add to that toss-up category the states of West Virginia and Illinois, both currently controlled by Democrats.

There is not one Senate seat, currently in Republican hands, that is in danger – not one!

I don’t mean to be bitter about this (although I am), but this means a tremendous victory for the corporations that have been dabbling big-time in this election (thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court).

Who votes in America? Corporations or the People?
These will be major questions to struggle with in the aftermath of this election.

Is the Tea Party a winner?
Whether this can be considered a big victory for the Tea Party has not yet been determined. Paul’s win in Kentucky has been a foregone conclusion for many weeks. Marco Rubio, the Republican endorsee for the U.S. Senate in Florida was also endorsed by the Florida Tea Party. He’ll win going away, but is it a win for the Tea Party? Nevada is a key state for the Tea Party. Sharon Angle is their baby! A victory there will give the Tea Party strong bragging rights!

The biggest question
It’ll take quite a while to answer the biggest question about the election year: What happened to all those excited followers of Barack Obama? We’ll have a book or two written on the subject, I am sure!

Here’s my prediction
2012 will be very, very different. Big corporation involvement in this election will be exposed by then. The conservative attack on important institutions like Medicare and Social Security will wake some people up. It’s going to be a helluva scrap!

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Monday, September 20, 2010

It’s DE-jà vu all over again!


The Tea Party moves further and farther away from the center!
by Charlie Leck

I blogged last week about THE TEA PARTY & THE GOP and tried to explain how crazy this year’s election polling and results would be because of the way the Republican Party has been weakened by relentless Tea Party attacks on established GOP candidates and officials.

There is no better example of this dynamic than in the current campaign for a Congressional seat in NY’s 23rd Congressional district. There, the Democratic candidate was trailing the GOP’s endorsed candidate by double digits in all the polls. That GOP candidate got knocked off in the primary, however, and the Tea Party’s choice won and now trails the Democratic candidate in the polls by double digits.

Tea Party endorsed candidates are not being easily and gracefully accepted by the reasonable GOP voter. We see that in Minnesota. I think the concoctions the Tea Party is offering up all over the nation are often candidates too eccentric, too rabid and too extreme for the average voter.

A column by Simon Malloy, on Media Matters, about this NY Congressional election is very illustrative of this political “hitch” we are witnessing all over the nation. [Read Simon Malloy’s Media Matters: DE-jà vu]

Malloy's explanation of a recent and worrisome Pew Research Center survey about how, based on their political affiliations, Americans get their news is quite astounding:

"The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press released a survey this week detailing Americans' news-gathering habits. Of particular note was their partisan breakdown of cable news audiences over the past decade. In 2000, 18 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats said they regularly get their news from Fox. In 2010, the percentage of Democratic regular viewers has dipped to 15, while regular Republican viewers skyrocketed to 40 percent. Moreover, 41 percent of Republicans believe 'all or most' of what Fox News says. It is the network of and for the GOP. Kevin Drum observed: 'As Fox has steadily amped up its conservative branding, conservatives have decided that's all they want to hear. The echo chamber must be getting pretty deafening over there.'"

Here's the Pew Research Center's survey report published on 12 September 2010.

This is going to be a wacky six weeks leading up to election day and I'm really into it like crazy -- I mean like really crazy!

Here are some of the U.S. Senate races I'll be following closely. It's important that the Democrats continue to hold a majority in that body.

Wisconsin U.S. Senate Race
This is one of the stunners for me. Feingold is trailing the Republican candidate, Johnson, by significant numbers. Feingold is an extraordinary Senator – one of the most creative and brilliant guys in Washington.

Rasmussen Reports sees 6 U.S. Senate races as toss-ups
As of this moment, the Rasmussen Reports sees the Democrats holding 49 U.S. Senate seats after the election, while the Republicans would hold 45 of them. That leaves 6 seats as real contests around the nation (as of right now). Those contests include California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin and West Virginia. I'll watch each of them closely.

Add Pennsylvania
I’ll add Pennsylvania to the list of states I'll follow closely because I think the race there is still in question. Joe Sestak is the Democrat who knocked off Arlan Spector in the primary election. Sestak has a name recognition problem but he has 6 weeks to gain on the Republican, Pat Toomey, who hasn’t reached the 50 percent mark in the polls yet.

Connecticut
Although Rasmussen puts the Connecticut Senate race in the Democrat’s column, I think it is still much too close to do that. The Democrat is Richard Blumenthal and he gets slightly better than the 50 percent mark, but Linda McMahon, the Republican, is still polling strongly and she has time to turn some of Blumenthal’s support away from him. This is really a hold-your-breath kind of race.

California
U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer may be in trouble in California. Polls show her in a dead-heat right now with the Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, with 2 percent of those polled being undecided.

In all of this, Obama’s presidency hangs in the balance. If the Republicans take over the U.S. Senate you can be sure things will stagnate for the next two years and Obama will likely be a one-term president who may not even seek the endorsement to run. How fast things can change in Washington!

Will Obama emerge from hiding?
A story by Jackie Calmes and Michael Shear in this morning’s New York Times says that Obama and his aides are thinking about a national campaign to tie the GOP directly to the Tea Party, in essence to say that the Republican Party is “all but taken over by the Tea Party extremists.” [click here to read the story] According to the story, Obama is due to come out of hiding soon, in an attempt to rally the voters who came out in support of him two years ago. Many feel that the Democrats only hope is if these voters can be re-energized.

Keep me informed!
Let me know what's going on in your state's U.S. Senate and House of Representative races and which ones will see Democrats turned out to pasture.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

The Tea Party and the GOP


Here’s a possibility that will need to be watched closely by political wonks.*
by Charlie Leck

Do they party together – I mean, these people in the Tea Party and those stand-up, bright and solid people in the Republican Party? Just exactly how do they get along?

A lot of us are watching and waiting to see.

Delaware
A Tea Party candidate, Christine O’Donnell, just beat out an establishment Republican in Delaware in a primary race for the U.S. Senate. That has a lot of establishment folks shaking their collective heads; however, what’s important about this is watching to see who many of those establishment folks will vote for in the general election on November’s first Tuesday.

The same thing is happening here in Minnesota in the gubernatorial race. The Tea Party is solidly behind Tom Emmer, a nutty, knee-jerk Republican who has been endorsed by the Tea Party goddess, Sarah Palin. Emmer also managed to win the GOP endorsement at the State Convention. Here plenty of Republicans are bolting away from Emmer and sliding over to either the Independent Party choice or to the Democrat’s candidate (mostly to the former).

It will tell us a lot about the strength of the Tea Party movement if O’Donnell can win in Delaware and Emmer can win in Minnesota.

Other states to watch are the following:

New York
The Tea Party candidate for Governor, Carl Paladino, toppled the GOP’s guy, Representative Rick Lazio.

Florida
The Tea Party took a stand behind Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, formerly a Republican, will run as an Independent for a Senate seat.

Kentucky
The big victory by Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and the son of Ron Paul, put him in a race against Democrat Jack Conway for the U.S. Senate. The son of the famous father beat out a traditional GOP candidate, Trey Grayson, in the primary. Since Paul currently is supported by 54% of those polled to only 39% for Conway, it looks like the Tea Party will get its man down there. There is too small an undecided number for Conway to make any kind of big movement up.

Alaska
With the help of Sara Palin, GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski was knocked off in the primary by the Tea Party’s guy, Joe Miller. In the general election Miller will go up against Democrat Scott McAdams for a seat in the U.S. Senate.

Other big races to watch
Watch how the Tea Party’s darling, Sharron Angle, does in Nevada against the current majority leader in the U.S. Senate, Harry Reid. Angle knocked off a GOP regular to get in the race. Other interesting Tea Party candidates are in big races in Colorado and Utah.

I’m going to watch the polls on these races for you!
In order to test the strength of the Tea Party, I’m going to watch the pre-election polls in these states to see if the Tea Party can hold traditional Republicans or if there will be significant leakage enough to cause problems for the GOP and the Tea Party. Can Democrats or Independents manage to pull out victories in several of these situations where they normally wouldn’t have won?

Or, is the Tea Party for real?
The other possibility is that the Tea Party movement is for real and there is a sea-change happening in American politics. We’ll know in another 45 days or so, but Hamline University’s professor of Political Science thinks there is a major change going on and that the Tea Party will elect as many as 7 candidates to Congress. In an interview on WCCO Radio (Twin Cities) this morning, he compared it to the political reformation in the 60s and early 70s that was very liberal in nature and was made up of the young. This time he sees the change as being older, wealthier and conservative.

Dan Balz, in a Washington Post article, suggested it might be called a "Civil War" or an "insurrection." He claims the leadership of the Republican Party has lost control. Of the Tea Partiers he said: “They are the leading edge of an anti-Washington movement that will wipe out the Democrats in November and threaten President Obama’s reelection hopes in 2012. [read the entire Washington Post story]

Yet, maybe not! The movement is so angry, so anti-everything, that it does not have a central message. And, the movement is way off center. There is a history in America of elections being won by the party that can most clearly capture the center. The Democrats have a chance to do that in the next six weeks. Balz, in his Washington Post story also sees this as possible (with a big slap of the President at the same time):

“Whatever the outcome, the Tea Party movement’s conservatism could leave the center of the political spectrum open to Obama and the Democrats, if the President is smart enough to reclaim it.”

A KSTP TV5 Eyewitness News poll here in the Twin Cities shows Democrat Mark Dayton with a slim 2 point lead over Republican (and Tea Party endorsed) candidate Tom Emmer.

Dayton (Democrat) 38%
Emmer (Republican) 36%
Horner (Indepen.) 05%
Undecided 04%
Other 05%

Here’s the interesting question about this local election of ours: Horner’s numbers are certainly going to increase – and dramatically so! From where will those voters come? I hope and expect that they will move over from the far too rightish candidate Tom Emmer and the winner of the race will come from either the Democrats or the Independents.

The polls, all across the nation, will be telling us a lot in the next few weeks and I’ll be following them closely and I’ll report them here.

*WONK (according to the World Dictionary): noun… a person who is obsessively interested in a specified subject…

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