NE by NW

Obama did well in last night’s debate. Now his campaign organization will descend on Ohio and try to figure out a way to eeeeeeek out a victory there.
by Charlie Leck

A Message to my friends in Ohio!

It looks as if the northeast United States, including all of New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland will be carried by President Obama. Virginia is still a question mark (very, very close).

The far northwest, Oregon and Washington, appear to be securely in the Obama camp and so does California.

In the Northwest and Northeast, Obama looks good. Of course, there will be a southern sweep, from East to West for Romney, including, it looks like, Florida. The lone holdout will probably be New Mexico. The Great West, as usual, will go Republican, with the possible exception of Colorado and Nevada. Iowa is very close and it will be when its voters go to the polls.

The Great Lakes states are going for Obama with the possible exception of Ohio, and that is what the election comes down to – Ohio!

The extraordinary Nate Silver, about whom I wrote yesterday, has Ohio pegged – at the moment – as likely to vote for Obama. Averaging out the dependable polling organizations, as I did this morning, shows Obama with a 1 point lead (which, in polling lingo, means they are tied because they are within that 2 point margin of error territory).

It will be some week or two in Ohio. You poor folks, including Tony Rugare of Cleveland– one of my favorite bloggers and a reader of this blog – better get ready for the TV blitz that is about to hit you. You may want to just go out and get a dozen or so DVD movies to watch over the next week’s time and just leave the idiot box shut down. Get the yards all ready for winter. Check out the snowblower. Change the furnace filter. Clean the gutters. And, if you have the time, you might as well clean the garage, too. Impress the little woman by taking her out to lunch and then to an afternoon of shopping (and spare no expense because the economy needs you).

Ohio, you have my sympathies!

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Big Polling News out of Ohio

The President is creeping ever so close to the projected 270 electoral votes that he needs to retain the presidency!
by Charlie Leck

I’m starting to think about moving Ohio into the Obama column. It will be a big move when it happens and it will put the President tantalizingly close to the 270 electoral votes he needs. I’m not going to do it yet, but if the next debate goes well and Obama continues to hold his current lead, I’m going to color Ohio blue!

In a poll by NBC/WSJ released on Tuesday afternoon, Obama is showing a 7 percentage point lead among likely voters in Ohio.  

President Obama is favored by 56 percent of all women who will likely vote in Ohio.

The Real Clear Politics electoral map now shows Obama with 269 electoral votes. Remember he needs 270. This poll watcher now lists only 7 states that are undecided. I’m not certain that they haven’t given Obama the Wisconsin vote just a bit too prematurely. If it’s true that Obama can count on Wisconsin, then, if anyone of the states below decides on Obama, the President will be reelected. They are

Colorado (where NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 5, but other pollers have it much closer)

Florida (where all the polling organization have it very, very close)

Iowa (where the Des Moines Register has Obama up by 4, but other pollers show it within 2 points)

Missouri (where the polling show it’s close in the show-me-state but I think the state belongs to Romney)

North Carolina (where I gave this state to Romney a couple weeks ago, but NBC/WSJ finds Obama is up by 2 percentage points. I’m still calling this a Romney state!)

Nevada (where turn-out is the key! Obama is significantly ahead in the polls, but Nevada does have a reputation for not turning out in big numbers to vote. Obama needs a big, big turnout.)

Virginia (where the polls will change every few days right up to Election Day. Right now Obama has a 3.5 percentage lead when all the polls are averaged, but that is skewed by Roanoke College’s polls that put Obama up by 8 percentage points. Throw Roanoke out of the average and you have Obama up by 2 points and that’s well within the margins of error.)

Frankly, I still have Wisconsin in the toss-up states and I have Obama at 259 of the 270 electoral votes he needs.

On election night, all eyes will be on Florida. We could know the outcome of this election by 10 P.M. eastern time.

I know full well that things could change in the next three weeks. Anything could happen, but short of any disasters by the Obama campaign organization, I think the President is going to win if any of the states listed above go for him..

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Where the Battle will be Won!

Come Election Day, here’s how I predict things will shake out; and, here is a list of the states I can’t predict!
by Charlie Leck

We are less than 8 weeks away from Election Day. There are three presidential debates coming up and one debate between the vice presidential candidates. Do they mean anything? Indeed they do. I think the election will be won or lost in those debates. Obama has very good leads in 20 states (plus the District of Columbia). If he holds and wins those states, he will be only 23 electoral votes short of winning a second term. There are 85 electoral votes among the six undecided states (see below).

Take a look at all the numbers below and you will see what each candidate must do to finish first.

Romney States
Based on today’s polls, here are the states that Mitt Romney should win (++ means the lead is pretty much overwhelming). I am calling all 23 states in this list a lock for Romney. There are mumblings in the Obama camp that he still has a chance to take North Carolina. He doesn’t!

Alabama (++)                           09

Alaska (++)                               03

Arizona (++)                             11

Arkansas (++)                          06

Georgia (++)                             16

Idaho (++)                                 04

Indiana (++)                             11

Kansas (++)                               06

Kentucky (++)                          08

Louisiana (++)                          08

Mississippi (++)                       06

Missouri (+6)                            10

Montana (++)                           03

Nebraska (++)                         05

North Carolina (+3)               15

North Dakota (++)                 03

Oklahoma (++)                        07

South Carolina (++)               09

South Dakota (++)                  03

Tennessee (++)                        11

Texas (++)                                 38

Utah (++)                                   06

West Virginia (++)                 05

Wyoming (++)                         03

                                     Total       206

These states would put Romney at 206 of the 270 electoral votes needed (64 short)

From the states that I list in the Obama camp (below), Romney is still hopeful he can steal Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan. I don’t think so. If he can’t, he will need to win 64 of the 85 electoral votes of the undecided states. Winning every one of those 6 undecided states, but losing Florida would not be good enough.

Obama States
Based on today’s polls, here are the 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that President Obama is targeting as blue states! He is counting on these states to bring him ever so close to victory. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. These states represent 247 electoral votes.

(++ means the Obama lead is pretty much overwhelming and the number of electors is listed).

California (++)                          55

Connecticut (+7)                      07

Delaware (++)                           03

District of Columbia (++)    03

Hawaii (++)                                04

Illinois (++)                                20

Maine (+4)                                 04

Maryland (+5)                          10

Massachusetts (++)                11

Michigan (+4)                           16

Minnesota (+10)                      10

Nevada (+3)                              06

New Hampshire (+5)             04

New Jersey (++)                      14

New Mexico (+5)                    05

New York (++)                         29

Oregon (+7)                              07

Pennsylvania (+8)                  20

Rhode Island (++)                  04

Vermont (+3.5)                       03

Washington (++)                     12

                                     Total       247

These states would put Obama at 247 of the 270 electoral votes needed (23 short). Of the undecided states (listed below), Obama would have to win Ohio and Colorado or Wisconsin and Virginia or any combination of states that adds up to 23, or, simply, Florida

The above numbers are why I have been saying, all along, that Florida is a crucial state. Ohio is, of course, also very important. If Obama carries those two states he will be reelected. I am not predicting an Obama victory. Winning 23 electors from the list below will be difficult for Obama; however, winning 64 of them will be even more difficult for Romney.

Here’s where the battle will be won… toss-up states!
Here are the toss-up states as of today… (remember, Romney would need to win 64 of these 85 electoral votes, while Obama needs only Florida or any two totaling 23.)

Colorado (Obama +3)            09

Iowa (Even)                                06

Florida (Even)                           29

Ohio (Obama +2)                     18

Virginia (Romney +3)            13

Wisconsin (Even)                     10

                                     Total         85

To recap
Obama is quite sure (not certain) of 247 votes. Romney is locked in on 206 votes. There are 85 votes that are undecided. It’s quite a race.

I’ll go back to this blog after the election and let you know if I predicted Obama’s states, to this point, correctly. There’s no problem with the prediction of Romney’s states; for he will win all the states listed in his column.

Hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent in advertising in Florida over the next 7 weeks by Political Action Committees (PACs) that support Romney. The President will not be able to keep up with that kind of spending.

Warning!
Several very politically savvy friends of mine are warning me that, if ever, this could be the year that polls mean very, very little. “There is a strong undercurrent out there,” one of them writes to me, “that is just so unpredictable. And, I mean it is on both sides, this undercurrent of rage and fear. It will drive people to voting booths like we haven’t seen in a long, long time.”

Another friend warns otherwise -- that…

“Obama must have an organizational plan to get people out to vote. He has the numbers to win, but there is a chance they will not vote with the enthusiasm they had in 2008. I have no idea how Obama will do this! In the end, we may think the polls were all wrong. I don’t think they are but the vote may not reflect it because of the huge numbers of people who will not vote! Iowa is a good example. College and University students voted there in big, big numbers in 2008. Obama won by 9 percentage points. There is every fear that they will not vote in those numbers this time. On the other hand, you know that Romney’s backers are going to vote for sure.”

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Ohio and Florida!

Does this sound familiar? What the polls are saying!
by Charlie Leck

I had lunch today with one of the leading politicos in the state of Minnesota. He knows his stuff. I know that because he’s a proven commodity. He understands the trends in our state completely. He’s very good on national trends also. I told him that over 50 readers have asked me to give them regular reports on what the polls are saying. He was pretty amazed at that number. I had my reader-tracking figures with me for overall blog visits. When he saw the blog was holding steady at 5,000 regular visits per week, he was even more surprised. He promised to start reading.

He’s not too trustful of the polls this year. He thinks a lot of funny-business is going on in both campaigns; however, he concedes that the real figures are now starting to come in. The bounce from the conventions is over. The first debate is history. One can begin to get some real readings.

“Don’t forget that this is not a national election,” he told me. “This is a state by state affair. You have to look at the powerful states and see what is happening. You may hear that Obama is ahead by 5, 6 or 7 points nationally, but if he is behind in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he’s got a problem.”

“So, how does it look state by state?”

He pulled a big file folder out of his tattered brief case.

“Let’s begin at home,” he mumbled.

“It’s very close here,” he said. “My figures indicate Obama would win tomorrow if the election were held tomorrow. Hold it next week and it might be different. He appears to have a two point lead here. His campaign claims a very large, organized youth vote that is not being polled.”

“What about that?”

“I believe them. I’ve seen the phenomenon before – many years ago – and it’s more acute now with this wireless generation. However, we have to take the Obama folks’ word for the numbers. They claim it’s in the thousands in Minnesota – and millions nation-wide. We won’t know about that until we wake up on that Wednesday morning in November.”

“So, how about the other states you mentioned. Where is he?”

“McCain has about a two point margin in Ohio. No Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. It’s worth watching. Yet, Obama has a significant lead in Michigan and a whopping lead in Pennsylvania. That’s significant. One needs to figure out why. It may be key. Obama will lose big in most of the south – by huge margins in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas. Yet, here’s what surprises me. There is a strong feeling he will win in North Carolina. That would be big. If he does, he might be able to lose Florida and still win. Obama is very strong in California and he should win there without question. He’ll win big in New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. So, we’re coming down to Ohio and the western states. If Obama can win a few states the Democrats don’t ordinarily carry, he’ll win. Forget Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. He’ll lose them big but they don’t count for much. He’ll lose Arizona big and win New Mexico big. So, it comes down to Washington, Oregon and Colorado. Colorado is a really key state in this election. It really is! Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Ohio and Florida, are the states to watch. It’s in Washington and Oregon that this big, unpolled number of voters is vast. The polls won’t show it, but I think he’ll win big there. Colorado is tough to figure out. Obama will get killed in rural areas. Will the university towns and Denver come through big for him? Key question!”

I looked at him carefully. He was in deep concentration.

“So,” I asked him, “where are we?”

“We are down to two states! Surprise, surprise, surpise! Can you guess which two I’m talking about.”

I ventured an answer.

“Yup,” he said, “you got it! Florida and Ohio. At the moment, McCain has a one-point lead in each of those states. If that holds, it means Obama’s uncounted, silent army of young supporters is needed for him to win.”

I waved at the waiter and asked him to bring another martini for my oracle. It came quickly.

“So, we just sit through the morning of November 5th and wait for the count?”

“Yup,” he said, “and it will be very close. Sound familiar? Ohio and Florida!”

There may be more than you want to know in the following list my friend put together for me, but it’s here if you want to go on.

To review, these states are
locks for Senator McCain:
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisianna
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

The following appear to be
locks for Senator Obama
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont

The following states have close races and will be
considered battleground territory:
Colorado (dead even as of this date)
Connecticut (leaning toward Obama, but Lieberman will campaign for McCain)
Florida (very close)
Iowa (leaning toward Obama)
Michigan (leaning toward Obama)
Minnesota (dead even)
Missouri (dead even)
Nevada (very close)
New Hampshire (leaning toward McCain)
New Mexico (leaning toward Obama)
North Carolina (slight, surprising lean toward Obama)
Ohio (very close)
Virginia (leaning toward Obama)
Washington (leaning toward Obama)
Wisconsin (significant lean toward Obama)