Friday, May 9, 2014

Look of U.S. Senate Will Change

The United States Senate has been controlled by the Democrats. The Republicans earnestly want to change that. If it is changed, it will be a nightmare for President Obama. Here are the odds and the current talk in the nation’s capital.
by Charlie Leck
The current U.S. Senate has 53Democratic senators and there are two independences (who normally caucus with the Democrats). That leaves 45 Republicans of various political leanings. The Republicans dearly want to take control of the Senate and they need to win six seats to do that. That’s a tough assignment, but I think it is possible for the GOP to do it.
16 Competitive Senate Chairs
There are sixteen races that should be watched in November’s election. Can the Republicans will five or six of them? Here are the Democratic seats that are, in my opinion, at serious risk.
Alaska:                         Mark Begich is the Democratic incumbent. Many call it a toss-up!
                                        I think Begich will survive in this race. Will his opponent be that woman --
                                        you know, THAT woman?
Arkansas:                    Democrat Mark Pryor will likely lose this race (gain of 1 for GOP)
Colorado:                    Democrat Mark Udall will prevail strongly.
Georgia:                       Saxby Chambliss, the Republican, is retiring. An interesting race to watch!
                                        But, in the end, I think the Republicans will prevail.
                                        The candidates for this race have not yet been chosen and so there is some
                                        hope that the GOP will err here in who they choose.
Iowa:                             Tom Harkin, the Democratic, is stepping down; nevertheless, I think dems
needn’t worry! I give this one to the Democrats.
Kentucky:                    Mitch McConnell is in a tight, tight race here and the Democrats need a
                                        spectacular turnout. If they get it, I think the Democratic challenger will win
                                        here. (If so, we are back to no change in the Senate count)
Louisiana:                  Mary Landrieu is the Democratic incumbent. Can she hold the seat?
                                        I think she will lose it by a wide margin. (Republican get 1 new seat!)
Maine:                          There is only a question is Maine because the current Senator, Sue Collins,
                                        is stepping down. That opens the race a little but this is a safe, blue state.
Michigan:                    Generally, this is a Democratic state and the incumbent Carl Levin will have
                                        a close one here, but I think he will win it. He’ll need money and help.
Minnesota:                 I’m amused that some are calling it close. I think Senator Franken will win
                                        by at least 5 percentage points.
Montana:                     The GOP will gain a new seat here by winning by a large margin and turning
                                        the state to their control. (GOP is up 2 seats!)
New Hampshire:      Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this state for the her party
                                        and win easily.
North Carolina:         Boy, everyone will be watching this one and it will go to the wire. Democrats
must have a huge turnout here – huge. There will be some big money spent
here because a win would put the GOP up by 3 seats toward the 6 they want.
Oregon:                        The pros are calling this a competitive state. I don’t believe it. Jeff Merkely
and the Dems will win this one easily.
South Dakota:            This seat in the Senate is current occupied by a Democrat (Tim Johnson), but
the Republicans will win it going away with around 90 percent of the vote.
And that gets the Republicans up to 4 new Senate seats.
Virginia:                       Mark Warner is the U.S. Senator from Virginia and he’s a Democrat. The
Republicans are eyeing this seat but they won’t win it. Dems will win easily.
West Virginia:           Here comes the Republicans 5th new seat in the Senate. Incumbent Senator Jay Rockefeller, the Democrat, will lose here to a state that has really moved toward the Tea Party.
If the above scenario is accurate, we’ll see an evenly split senate next year with 50 Republican senators, 48 Democrat senators and 2 independents who will generally side with Democrats on issues. If I’m wrong about Kentucky, the Republicans will take over control of the U.S. Senate. Of course, I could be wrong about North Carolina and it might go to the Democrats. And, I may also be wrong about Georgia which could elect a Democrat with a big, big turnout of voters.

The President of the United States should prepare for more nightmares!

You can see how this will be a very close battle for the control of the U.S. Senate. Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Iowa will be watched very, very closely. And, a lot of big money will be spent in those states. There is a big stake in this for the Koch Brothers and they will unload huge bag-fulls of money in those states. The super-rich will be big players in this election.
It’s not the way the American democracy is supposed to work, but there you are. If you get a weird Supreme Court together, anything can happen – and it did!


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