The eyes of all politicos are on 3 states today, to see what the trends are!
by Charlie Leck
Clues will come from Today’s voting in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We’ll get a glimpse of the impact President Obama’s first year and a half has had on the electorate; but progressives should not panic over these clues. I think we’ll gain markers that will point us in the direction we need to go to get the best results out of November’s election.
I see a trend toward a division in the conservative vote. It’s very evident up here in Minnesota. A lot of people who don’t identify with political parties are turned off by all the hateful fighting among politicians. Many of these people also cannot identify with the Tea Party. I think our state, in November, will elect an independent candidate for governor who doesn’t connect with either of the traditional parties or the Tea Party.
The same kind of thing is happening in Wisconsin. It’s time to start watching trends in other states as well.
Kentucky will provide some clues about the real vote getting power of the Tea Party movement. Good results there for the tea people could send a shiver of fear through politicians and political organizers all across the nation. One caveat to remember about Kentucky, however, is that the Tea Party guy, Rand Paul, son of Texan, Ron Paul, has had both his father’s name and plenty of money to work with; so a victory for him may be an anomaly and may not really tell us much about future elections.
There are also some odd and restrictive primary election regulations at work in Kentucky that may not allow us to see the full strength of the Tea Party. In order to vote in the primaries there, one had to be registered with his/her party by last December 31st. So, Paul will not be able to pull as many independent voters to his side as might like to vote for him; nor will either candidate get many dissatisfied Democrats out to vote.