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Ohio and Florida are absolutely crucial and you will see lots of campaigning there; and I don’t think Mrs. Clinton can lose both of these states and still win the election.
by Charlie Leck

I began blogging in 2007 during the early days of the Presidential election race. I followed the polling results of a dozen major poll takers and kept my readers up-to-date on how things stood (the kind of thing done so much more expertly and fashionably now by 538). A couple of days before the 2008 election I was able to ensure my readers that Barack Obama would be the next president. It won’t be that easy this time. I am shocked that this nation is giving such serious consideration to Donald Trump for the office.

Clinton v. Trump: The count as I see it now!
In my wildest imaginings I would never have considered that the race would be this close.

270 electoral votes are necessary to win the presidency. As of right now, I see Clinton able to hold on to and win states that add up to 240 electoral votes – leaving her in need of 30 more. Then there are the following states that keeping sliding back and forth between her and Trump: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10). The electoral votes in those states are listed with each state.

It doesn’t take a polling genius to see how important Florida is in this election. If Hillary were to lose Florida, she’d need to take at least two of the other four remaining states – two if they were Ohio (18) and Michigan (16). I’ll put it this way: She’d better win three of the five states listed in the paragraph above!

The following are the states that appear certain to vote for Donald Trump (a good number of them are not surprises but a few are)..

Kansas (6)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Montana (3)

North Dakota (3)

South Dakota (3)

The following states are leaning toward Donald Trump

Indiana (11)

Nebraska (1)

South Carolina (9)

Montana (3)

Texas (38)

Utah (6)

Here are the states that experts consider absolute toss-ups… but I’m not sure Georgia (a state that always disappoints me) belongs here. I think the Peach State will vote for Trump. I think Pennsylvania and Virginia will vote for Clinton. Maine, at the moment, is leaning toward Trump. Ohio and Florida are absolutely crucial and you will see lots of campaigning there; and I don’t think Mrs. Clinton can lose both of these states and still win the election.

Arizona (11)

Florida (29)

Georgia (16)

Iowa (6)

Maine (1)

Missouri (10)

Nevada (6)

North Carolina (15)

Ohio (18)

Pennsylvania (20)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

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