Monday, October 17, 2016

An Update on the State-by-State Polls

I’ll stick with the explanation of state-by-state polling I gave you about a month ago! Florida and Ohio will determine the winner – anyone who takes both of them will win the race, so Hillary must win one of these two states to become president.
by Charlie Leck

One of the major changes in the polls from that earlier blog [ ] is that there is a real chance that Hillary (believe it or not) could win in Arizona. Nevada and Colorado are also stronger possibilities for her now than they were when I last wrote. And North Carolina is also leaning very slightly toward Hillary.

As for Ohio and Florida, at this moment Florida is leaning rather strongly toward Hillary and Ohio is leaning slightly toward her. This is according to excellent polling information from tried and true sources that I have learned to trust ever since I began following polling information in the 2007 election. However, this is a volatile election and any kind of serious misstep by either candidate jolts the polls like an earthquake hit. There’s another debate coming when and where Donald Trump will have to throw everything at Hillary (including the kitchen sink). Expect him, on that night, to be the most crazed politician you have every seen.

I think you can put all of New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Virginia and Maryland in Hillary’s Column. And, you can add all the west coast states (California, Oregon and Washington). That leaves the southeast states and the great center of the country to worry about (including Ohio, which could go either way). Hillary actually has a shot at North Carolina and a teeny-weeny shot at Georgia. Trump will, of course, carry the rest of the deep-south states and Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Put my home state, Minnesota, in Hillary’s column and I think she’ll also carry Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. Trump will likely carry Indiana.

Iowa and Ohio!
These are two key states that we don’t know about. Of the two, Ohio is the most important, but Iowa always seems to be a bell-weather state that indicates likelihoods. I’ll watch them closely on election night. As a matter of fact, here are the states I’ll keep my eyes on very carefully on election night…
  • ·         Ohio
  • ·         Florida
  • ·         Arizona
  • ·         Georgia
  • ·         Iowa
  • ·         North Carolina
  • ·         Nevada

Here’s what you can count on!
Sweeping the first two on the list above will indicate a win. If the candidates split those two states then you can consider the other states on the list crucial; and, the results of the election will probably not be known until late on Wednesday morning.

It used to be fun!
In the past this was great fun for me. My sanity never hung in the balance. A win or a loss would not cause me to jump off a cliff. This year is different. The kind of nation we will be in the foreseeable future depends on the election results on November 8. That is only three weeks away.

I’ve begun checking the prices of homes in le Midi en France.


Why not become a follower? If you read my blog regularly, why not become a follower? All you have to do is click in the upper right hand corner (Join this Site) and establish a simple means of communication. Then you'll be informed every time a new blog is posted here. If all that's confusing, here's Google's explanation of how to do it! If you don’t want to post comments on the blog, but would like to communicate with me about it, send me an email if you’d like.

No comments:

Post a Comment