NE by NW

Obama did well in last night’s debate. Now his campaign organization will descend on Ohio and try to figure out a way to eeeeeeek out a victory there.
by Charlie Leck

A Message to my friends in Ohio!

It looks as if the northeast United States, including all of New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland will be carried by President Obama. Virginia is still a question mark (very, very close).

The far northwest, Oregon and Washington, appear to be securely in the Obama camp and so does California.

In the Northwest and Northeast, Obama looks good. Of course, there will be a southern sweep, from East to West for Romney, including, it looks like, Florida. The lone holdout will probably be New Mexico. The Great West, as usual, will go Republican, with the possible exception of Colorado and Nevada. Iowa is very close and it will be when its voters go to the polls.

The Great Lakes states are going for Obama with the possible exception of Ohio, and that is what the election comes down to – Ohio!

The extraordinary Nate Silver, about whom I wrote yesterday, has Ohio pegged – at the moment – as likely to vote for Obama. Averaging out the dependable polling organizations, as I did this morning, shows Obama with a 1 point lead (which, in polling lingo, means they are tied because they are within that 2 point margin of error territory).

It will be some week or two in Ohio. You poor folks, including Tony Rugare of Cleveland– one of my favorite bloggers and a reader of this blog – better get ready for the TV blitz that is about to hit you. You may want to just go out and get a dozen or so DVD movies to watch over the next week’s time and just leave the idiot box shut down. Get the yards all ready for winter. Check out the snowblower. Change the furnace filter. Clean the gutters. And, if you have the time, you might as well clean the garage, too. Impress the little woman by taking her out to lunch and then to an afternoon of shopping (and spare no expense because the economy needs you).

Ohio, you have my sympathies!

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Big Polling News out of Ohio

The President is creeping ever so close to the projected 270 electoral votes that he needs to retain the presidency!
by Charlie Leck

I’m starting to think about moving Ohio into the Obama column. It will be a big move when it happens and it will put the President tantalizingly close to the 270 electoral votes he needs. I’m not going to do it yet, but if the next debate goes well and Obama continues to hold his current lead, I’m going to color Ohio blue!

In a poll by NBC/WSJ released on Tuesday afternoon, Obama is showing a 7 percentage point lead among likely voters in Ohio.  

President Obama is favored by 56 percent of all women who will likely vote in Ohio.

The Real Clear Politics electoral map now shows Obama with 269 electoral votes. Remember he needs 270. This poll watcher now lists only 7 states that are undecided. I’m not certain that they haven’t given Obama the Wisconsin vote just a bit too prematurely. If it’s true that Obama can count on Wisconsin, then, if anyone of the states below decides on Obama, the President will be reelected. They are

Colorado (where NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 5, but other pollers have it much closer)

Florida (where all the polling organization have it very, very close)

Iowa (where the Des Moines Register has Obama up by 4, but other pollers show it within 2 points)

Missouri (where the polling show it’s close in the show-me-state but I think the state belongs to Romney)

North Carolina (where I gave this state to Romney a couple weeks ago, but NBC/WSJ finds Obama is up by 2 percentage points. I’m still calling this a Romney state!)

Nevada (where turn-out is the key! Obama is significantly ahead in the polls, but Nevada does have a reputation for not turning out in big numbers to vote. Obama needs a big, big turnout.)

Virginia (where the polls will change every few days right up to Election Day. Right now Obama has a 3.5 percentage lead when all the polls are averaged, but that is skewed by Roanoke College’s polls that put Obama up by 8 percentage points. Throw Roanoke out of the average and you have Obama up by 2 points and that’s well within the margins of error.)

Frankly, I still have Wisconsin in the toss-up states and I have Obama at 259 of the 270 electoral votes he needs.

On election night, all eyes will be on Florida. We could know the outcome of this election by 10 P.M. eastern time.

I know full well that things could change in the next three weeks. Anything could happen, but short of any disasters by the Obama campaign organization, I think the President is going to win if any of the states listed above go for him..

_________________________

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Republicans Must Have Ohio to Win

It ‘s a rule in Presidential politics: Republicans cannot win without Ohio
by Charlie Leck

I’ve got some interesting observations for you – in a moment – but first I can’t resist giving you these zingers from David Letterman’s monologue on Wednesday night this week:

“You know, I like John McCain, but wandering around on stage there, he looked like a retiree who can’t find his Buick.”

“And then there was one kind of unpleasant moment for Barack Obama when that woman jumps up. Did you see that, where the woman jumps up? And Barack Obama is momentarily taken aback. And he said, “All right, look, I told you, ma’am, I already have a running mate. Now please sit down, Hillary”

Well, it’s time to turn our eyes to Ohio. There are reports that McCain’s campaign strategy group is desperately trying to reorganize its approach in Ohio. They know they must somehow win Ohio and Obama has been closing the gap there. Obama is funneling ground workers into every corner of the state and they are giving very heavy attention to the campuses of Ohio’s many colleges and universities.

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation! Well, not exactly. The Democrats can win the election without Ohio. The Republicans cannot. It’s a rule. They must have Ohio.

So, the GOP will do almost anything to win Ohio. There’s an element in the party that will even steal votes, destroy votes and manufacture votes in Ohio in order to win. The Dems are supposed to have a strategy to watch over such cheating this year. Let’s hope so.

We all saw some pretty dramatic scenes of anger at a couple of McCain campaign rallies the other night – folks in the crowd, rising to scream at McCain, begging him to get tougher and harsher in his campaign against Obama. This, I am sure, was all staged stuff. McCain is going to turn to dirty campaigning now, because he is desperate. This will be his excuse: “The people demanded it! I’m just responding to the people!” Whatever! McCain will now begin appealing to the lowest element in the voting public. It won’t be helpful to the nation, but McCain knows he must win Ohio and it is lost if he doesn’t get down in the mud.

Here's where the major polling organizations (and companies) are standing on Ohio right now:

ARG (American Research Group)
Yesterday (9 October), ARG polling results show Obama is up by 3 points in Ohio.

Rasmussen Report

As of this morning, this highly respected polling company has McCain ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio. That’s within the two-point margin of error and so the state is considered dead-even. Two weeks ago, in the Rasmussen Report, McCain led by 4 points – outside the error margin. Rasmussen and FOX News are the only two polling organizations showing McCain with a lead and both are in that margin of error territory.

Gallup Poll

This great-granddaddy of the polling business shows Obama steadily pulling away from McCain nationally (right now 51% to 42%) but shows Ohio as a virtual tie.

Washington Post and ABC Opinion Poll
has a shocker because it reports Obama is up by 6 points! However, this polling organization says that 20% of Ohio’s likely voters are “moveable” to the other side. That indicates that Ohio is incredibly volatile.

CNN/Time
has Obama up by 3% points.

The Columbus Dispatch
statewide polls show Obama up by 7 points. I like local newspaper polls and find them quite thorough and usually accurate.

Public Policy Polling
has Obama up by 6 points.

You can see and feel, from these numbers, the desperation McCain’s organization must feel. The very dependable CNN/Time poll report will likely be coming in on Friday or Saturday. That one will tell us a lot.

Most polling organizations are now conceding that there is a large segment of the population that is outside the polling the numbers. They are America’s young, without permanent connections in terms of addresses and phone numbers. That segment is overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. Will they vote? Who knows!

My favorite place to go, to keep up on the state-by-state polls of all these organizations, is Real Clear Politics. Give them a try if you want to keep an eye on things. If you go often, be sure to refresh your page each time, when you get there.

Florida
While you're at Real Clear Politics take a look at Florida. Only the poll surveys by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Survey USA have McCain ahead. All the other polling organizations show Obama with a lead from 2 to 4 percent.

Minnesota
Polling numbers in Minnesota show Obama ahead anywhere from 1 to 14 percent. It appears he has about an 8 point lead.

Colorado
No polling organization has Obama behind anymore in Colorado. The reputable organizations shows Obama with a 4 to 6 point lead. This would be a huge state for Obama to win.

Nevada
Only ARG has McCain with a lead and that's only 1 point. The rest of the pollers have Obama ahead by 4 to 6 points.

Oregon and Washington
Both of these key states have moved to "off-the-chart" status for Obama.

26 Days
McCain will need to perform wonders in the next 26 days to pull this one out. There is only one way for them to go. Attack! Attack! Attack! Be prepared for one of the dirtiest periods of politics in America history -- low down and rotten!