Thursday, October 4, 2012

Big Polling News out of Ohio

The President is creeping ever so close to the projected 270 electoral votes that he needs to retain the presidency!
by Charlie Leck

I’m starting to think about moving Ohio into the Obama column. It will be a big move when it happens and it will put the President tantalizingly close to the 270 electoral votes he needs. I’m not going to do it yet, but if the next debate goes well and Obama continues to hold his current lead, I’m going to color Ohio blue!

In a poll by NBC/WSJ released on Tuesday afternoon, Obama is showing a 7 percentage point lead among likely voters in Ohio.  

President Obama is favored by 56 percent of all women who will likely vote in Ohio.

The Real Clear Politics electoral map now shows Obama with 269 electoral votes. Remember he needs 270. This poll watcher now lists only 7 states that are undecided. I’m not certain that they haven’t given Obama the Wisconsin vote just a bit too prematurely. If it’s true that Obama can count on Wisconsin, then, if anyone of the states below decides on Obama, the President will be reelected. They are
Colorado (where NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 5, but other pollers have it much closer)
Florida (where all the polling organization have it very, very close)
Iowa (where the Des Moines Register has Obama up by 4, but other pollers show it within 2 points)
Missouri (where the polling show it’s close in the show-me-state but I think the state belongs to Romney)
North Carolina (where I gave this state to Romney a couple weeks ago, but NBC/WSJ finds Obama is up by 2 percentage points. I’m still calling this a Romney state!)
Nevada (where turn-out is the key! Obama is significantly ahead in the polls, but Nevada does have a reputation for not turning out in big numbers to vote. Obama needs a big, big turnout.)
Virginia (where the polls will change every few days right up to Election Day. Right now Obama has a 3.5 percentage lead when all the polls are averaged, but that is skewed by Roanoke College’s polls that put Obama up by 8 percentage points. Throw Roanoke out of the average and you have Obama up by 2 points and that’s well within the margins of error.)

Frankly, I still have Wisconsin in the toss-up states and I have Obama at 259 of the 270 electoral votes he needs.

On election night, all eyes will be on Florida. We could know the outcome of this election by 10 P.M. eastern time.

I know full well that things could change in the next three weeks. Anything could happen, but short of any disasters by the Obama campaign organization, I think the President is going to win if any of the states listed above go for him..

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