An Absolute Tie

This race between the donkey and the elephant is like an old, classic heavyweight championship boxing match. We are coming down to the last two rounds and the boxers are tired. They’ve each taken hard, damaging punches. One of them will be able to hang on and then look adequate enough in the fifteenth and final round that the judges will award him the victory. Any slip-up now – or any lucky punch – could see one of the fighters go down for the count.
by Charlie Leck

There are reports out of Libya that one of the leading perpetrators of the killings of our embassy employees and our ambassador is flaunting his achievements very publicly [see the David Kirkpatrick story in the NY Times]. This could stir a lot of anger in America and serve as a political opening for Mitt Romney in the presidential race; however, he will have to handle it very carefully or it could have the opposite impact.

The election race is so close right now that any incident like this could move the needle one way or the other. Every news story about an adjustment in the economy, or a change in the housing industry, or a movement in the crime statistics could influence just enough voters to make the difference. And the final presidential debate looms just ahead. It will not only be crucial, but I believe it will be determinative.

The race to 270
Here’s how I have the race toward the 270 electoral votes (EV) pegged. I will make adjustments again next Thursday or Friday to my final predictions as the reactions to the next debate come in.

As it stands below, Obama would win. There are, however, five (5) states that I consider shaky and Obama could lose three of them without it affecting the outcome. If he loses three, including Ohio, Romney would win. The shaky states are in italics below; they are Colorado, Iowa, Ohio Nevada and Virginia. He could lose three of those states but still win if he wins in Ohio. It appears that Obama has lost Florida, so he must win Ohio.

OBAMA				ROMNEY
State	EV	Total		State	EV	Total
California	55	55		Alabama	09	09
Colorado	09	64		Alaska	03	12
Connecticut	07	71		Arizona	11	23
Delaware	03	74		Arkansas	06	29
DC	03	77		Florida	29	58
Hawaii	04	81		Georgia	16	74
Illinois	20	101		Idaho	04	78
Iowa	06	107		Indiana	11	89
Maine	04	111		Kansas	06	95
Maryland	10	121		Kentucky	08	103
Massachusetts	11	132		Louisiana	08	111
Michigan	16	148		Mississippi	06	117
Minnesota	10	158		Missouri	10	127
Nevada	06	164		Montana	03	130
New Hampshire	04	168		Nebraska	05	135
New Jersey	14	182		North Carolina	15	150
New Mexico	05	187		North Dakota	03	153
New York	29	216		Oklahoma	07	160
Ohio	18	234		South Carolina	09	169
Oregon	07	241		South Dakota	03	172
Pennsylvania	20	261		Tennessee	11	183
Rhode Island	04	265		Texas	38	221
Virginia	13	278		Utah	06	227
Vermont	03	281		West Virginia	05	232
Washington	12	293		Wyoming	03	235
Wisconsin	10	303

Of course, if guys, like the fellow in Libya keep shooting their mouths of, or if Romney wins the next debate in a cake-walk, then all bets are off.