Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Debate Turns Polling Toward Romney

I wouldn’t have expected it in a hundred years. No way! The polls could not be turned so dramatically by a simple presidential debate; however, they were. The important toss-up states that I’ve been listing for the last four weeks were all running strongly toward the President. Now they’ve shifted to even races that anyone could win!
by Charlie Leck

Oh, my! Obama had this election nearly and neatly wrapped up. He only needed to put a bow on it. Then he went to Colorado to debate the challenger, Mitt Romney, and he was lackluster and disinterested. He got blown out of the water and, suddenly, Mitt Romney is very much alive and could pull out a win – a win that was very unlikely only 10 days ago.

Obama’s safe states are still safe; however, he had left himself about 35 electoral votes short of victory. It looked like he’d get a good portion of those in Virginia – or Wisconsin – or Colorado. He’d close it out in either Ohio or Florida. As a matter of fact, all five of those were moving comfortably toward him. Today – a week after the famous and disastrous debate – all of them have dropped back to even or have Romney slightly ahead.

Oh, my! As of today, here’s where these vital states stand…

Colorado               Dead even! Not even a spitting distance between them. Last week  it appeared that Obama was pulling out in front.
Ohio                      Dead even! Last week Obama had a 5 to 7 point lead!
Virginia                Dead even! Obama’s small lead of last week has vanished!
Wisconsin             Obama continues to hold a small lead – a lead just outside the statistical error category.
North Carolina     Romney has inched ahead. His lead is not safe, but he is ahead and his lead is just outside the statistical error category.
Nevada                  Dead even! Obama’s small lead has disappeared.
Florida                  Dead even! Obama was building a lead here and it has dissolved. Bad news for the President.
Iowa                      Obama continues to hold the slimmest little lead here.

In addition, Omaha was killing Romney in states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Now those states have pulled back within the statistical margin of error – meaning Obama’s lead is only a statistical one and not a real one.

The Next Debates
So, the next debates, including Biden’s tonight against Paul Ryan, are crucial. This may be an election that is decided by the House of Representatives and that is, as we know so painfully well, controlled by the Republicans.

I’m not kidding you!
This campaign is leading us slowly toward one of the most dramatic presidential races in the history of the land. I don’t like it! I don’t know how I’m going to stand up under it, but that’s the way it is. I thought I’d be able to go to bed early on Election Night and now I’ll need some kind of medical attention as I await the results.

Next Thursday
That’s it for this week! Next Thursday we’ll take another look at where the numbers stand. Also next Thursday, I’ll try to run a separate blog on where the important races in Minnesota stand, including the attempt to remove Bachmann from office.

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