Tuesday, October 16, 2012

How important is this debate to Obama?

    Serious people will need to be seriously
    stirred by the President tonight!

I’ll miss tonight’s debate. I’ll be sitting in a boring city council meeting here in my town. I can’t avoid it. It’s important.
by Charlie Leck

I’ve been looking and looking at all the polling results in the hours before the big debate begins tonight. It is absolutely amazing how the last presidential debate (the first one) between Obama and Romney rocked the trends in the most important polls.

Obama was inching toward a clear victory. He had his solid states tucked away and he was leading in enough of the toss-up states to make me feel confident he would get reelected.

Now the two are very close to even in the count of electoral votes that they have solidly locked up. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which I had put in Obama’s locked up column, are now in play again. It embarrasses me to say so, because states that I put a lock on have almost always stayed that way in the years that I’ve been poll watching.

Now, in all the states that we’ve listed as a toss-up, Obama has lost some ground to Romney. Those states, if you don’t remember, include Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Now you can add New Hampshire to those toss-ups.

Colorado has moved toward Romney. The challenger has inched ahead by a point. Obama held that lead two weeks ago.

Romney has now inched ahead in Florida. It’s not enough to remove it from the toss-ups, but it is a significant change from before the first debate.

is simply in a complete tie! Obama had inched 2 points ahead there, but he lost that lead!

New Hampshire
is simply tied – completely tied – at this moment.

North Carolina
is very close to moving into the Romney column. If it moves one more point, I’ll put it there.

is a vital state now because of the way all the others are trending. Obama’s lead there has slipped almost into the statistical error category. If Obama loses Ohio, I believe the election is lost. Obama had better be addressing the people of Ohio in his debate tonight.

Obama still holds about a 4 point lead in the Keystone State. Another poor debate and he will fall behind there, too. I don't think he could recover from losing this state.

is now leaning toward Romney. Two weeks ago it was leaning toward Obama. This is an enormous blow for Democrats.

is now, as far as I am concerned, a bell-weather state. There are no recent enough polls for me to figure out where the two candidates stand. It appears to be a dead even race there. Two weeks ago I was very close to moving it into Obama’s column.

Tonight’s debate
is extremely important. Now, that’s a silly thing I just wrote. For Obama, tonight’s debate is everything. He can’t just tie Romney in the debate. He must show the nation he is a competent and creative president who still has plenty of energy and enthusiasm for the job.

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  1. Hope you weren't too bored at the Council meeting - we tried to get business done as efficiently as possible. We had all done our homework, so understood the issues and that makes it easier to move along quickly. Hope you got to see some of the debate. Nice to see you at the meeting.

  2. Actually, it was not boring at all. Things do go much more smoothly when there is so little conflict. And, I got home in time to see the end of the debate. The mayor is amazing, that he can keep on keeping on after all these years of service. Charlie