Thursday, October 25, 2012

Who has the MO-JO?

The Republicans are drunk on the idea that the momentum is theirs and they’ll ride it to victory! As in 2004, that’s a matter of adjusting the mirrors and providing plenty of smoke! The Dems can't let it happen!
by Charlie Leck

“What is apparent is that the large plunge after Debate #1 came to a stop last week, right around the time of the VP debate. After that and Debate #2, Obama made some recovery. Now we are at a plateau, in which Obama is slightly – but decisively – ahead.” [Princeton Election Consortium]

It’s just like the Karl Rove plan in 2004 when the Republicans concocted this overwhelming sense of momentum just before the election, encouraging excitement in the troops and fundraising in their direction. And to a certain degree it’s working. Hanging chads in Florida turned out to be the difference, if you will remember.

In fact, the momentum and excitement ought to be with the Democrats because they are leading (even if by slim margins) in all the key battleground states – think of battleground states as all those that are not already dead certain to vote for one or the other of the candidates.

The experts list the following as the battleground states….


Florida is a key state no longer listed in the battleground category. Most pollers have given it to Romney even though the surveyed lead is only 2 or 3 points – very close to the statistical error category. The predicted results in this state could be a figment of the Romney burst of confidence and momentum. Obama is not giving up on it. Frankly, I would have included it in the above list of states.

The Romney campaign’s excitement aside, the reality is that Obama still holds a lead toward the 279 electoral votes. The question is Ohio. Let me repeat that! The question is Ohio. Sit down on election night with your bowl of popcorn and watch the returns come in. When they call Ohio, you will know who the winner is! At the moment it is still leaning toward Obama when the polling results are examined.

The highly respected Princeton Election Consortium is still calling for an Obama victory. Nate Silver (I wrote about him a few days ago) is still saying Obama will win in Ohio.

The really big story today
is about the comments of Indiana’s Republican Senate Candidate, Richard Mourdock. Those comments about rape being a part of God’s plan are so reprehensible and such a gross misunderstanding of the Divine that I look away is disgust rather than trying to write about them. If you haven’t heard the story, try looking for it on TPM.

Margaret and Helen Blog
You might also want to check out the excellent and profane words of Helen Philpot today as she rakes the Republicans over the coals for their attitudes about women.

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