Republicans Must Have Ohio to Win

It ‘s a rule in Presidential politics: Republicans cannot win without Ohio
by Charlie Leck

I’ve got some interesting observations for you – in a moment – but first I can’t resist giving you these zingers from David Letterman’s monologue on Wednesday night this week:

“You know, I like John McCain, but wandering around on stage there, he looked like a retiree who can’t find his Buick.”

“And then there was one kind of unpleasant moment for Barack Obama when that woman jumps up. Did you see that, where the woman jumps up? And Barack Obama is momentarily taken aback. And he said, “All right, look, I told you, ma’am, I already have a running mate. Now please sit down, Hillary”

Well, it’s time to turn our eyes to Ohio. There are reports that McCain’s campaign strategy group is desperately trying to reorganize its approach in Ohio. They know they must somehow win Ohio and Obama has been closing the gap there. Obama is funneling ground workers into every corner of the state and they are giving very heavy attention to the campuses of Ohio’s many colleges and universities.

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation! Well, not exactly. The Democrats can win the election without Ohio. The Republicans cannot. It’s a rule. They must have Ohio.

So, the GOP will do almost anything to win Ohio. There’s an element in the party that will even steal votes, destroy votes and manufacture votes in Ohio in order to win. The Dems are supposed to have a strategy to watch over such cheating this year. Let’s hope so.

We all saw some pretty dramatic scenes of anger at a couple of McCain campaign rallies the other night – folks in the crowd, rising to scream at McCain, begging him to get tougher and harsher in his campaign against Obama. This, I am sure, was all staged stuff. McCain is going to turn to dirty campaigning now, because he is desperate. This will be his excuse: “The people demanded it! I’m just responding to the people!” Whatever! McCain will now begin appealing to the lowest element in the voting public. It won’t be helpful to the nation, but McCain knows he must win Ohio and it is lost if he doesn’t get down in the mud.

Here's where the major polling organizations (and companies) are standing on Ohio right now:

ARG (American Research Group)
Yesterday (9 October), ARG polling results show Obama is up by 3 points in Ohio.

Rasmussen Report

As of this morning, this highly respected polling company has McCain ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio. That’s within the two-point margin of error and so the state is considered dead-even. Two weeks ago, in the Rasmussen Report, McCain led by 4 points – outside the error margin. Rasmussen and FOX News are the only two polling organizations showing McCain with a lead and both are in that margin of error territory.

Gallup Poll

This great-granddaddy of the polling business shows Obama steadily pulling away from McCain nationally (right now 51% to 42%) but shows Ohio as a virtual tie.

Washington Post and ABC Opinion Poll
has a shocker because it reports Obama is up by 6 points! However, this polling organization says that 20% of Ohio’s likely voters are “moveable” to the other side. That indicates that Ohio is incredibly volatile.

CNN/Time
has Obama up by 3% points.

The Columbus Dispatch
statewide polls show Obama up by 7 points. I like local newspaper polls and find them quite thorough and usually accurate.

Public Policy Polling
has Obama up by 6 points.

You can see and feel, from these numbers, the desperation McCain’s organization must feel. The very dependable CNN/Time poll report will likely be coming in on Friday or Saturday. That one will tell us a lot.

Most polling organizations are now conceding that there is a large segment of the population that is outside the polling the numbers. They are America’s young, without permanent connections in terms of addresses and phone numbers. That segment is overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. Will they vote? Who knows!

My favorite place to go, to keep up on the state-by-state polls of all these organizations, is Real Clear Politics. Give them a try if you want to keep an eye on things. If you go often, be sure to refresh your page each time, when you get there.

Florida
While you're at Real Clear Politics take a look at Florida. Only the poll surveys by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Survey USA have McCain ahead. All the other polling organizations show Obama with a lead from 2 to 4 percent.

Minnesota
Polling numbers in Minnesota show Obama ahead anywhere from 1 to 14 percent. It appears he has about an 8 point lead.

Colorado
No polling organization has Obama behind anymore in Colorado. The reputable organizations shows Obama with a 4 to 6 point lead. This would be a huge state for Obama to win.

Nevada
Only ARG has McCain with a lead and that's only 1 point. The rest of the pollers have Obama ahead by 4 to 6 points.

Oregon and Washington
Both of these key states have moved to "off-the-chart" status for Obama.

26 Days
McCain will need to perform wonders in the next 26 days to pull this one out. There is only one way for them to go. Attack! Attack! Attack! Be prepared for one of the dirtiest periods of politics in America history -- low down and rotten!

New Yorker Endorses Obama

New Yorker Magazine is one of the most significant periodicals in the nation!
by Charlie Leck

If you’ve ever gotten into the New Yorker Magazine, you know it’s a serious publication for serious readers. It could never be called lite. It’s heavy weight! And, it’s endorsement of Barack Obama in the coming election is serious and in-depth. Nevertheless, I recommend it to you. [You’ll find it here.]

The magazine sets the tone for its endorsement by beginning this way.

“Never in living memory has an election been more critical than the one fast approaching—that’s the quadrennial cliché, as expected as the balloons and the bombast. And yet when has it ever felt so urgently true? When have so many Americans had so clear a sense that a Presidency has—at the levels of competence, vision, and integrity—undermined the country and its ideals?”

That makes ultimate sense to most thinking-people. The current occupant of the White House has caused a complete redefinition of the United States of America all across the globe. We are not the nation today that we were when he took office. You can try putting the blame in a lot of different places, but, if you’re candid, you know it belongs to George W. Bush.

The New Yorker hammers on a number of well-know themes that describe the sorry state of the nation:

THE BLEAK ECONOMIC PICTURE

THE BLOATED WAR IN IRAQ AND THE FORTUNE AND LIVES IT HAS COST US

OUR LOSS OF INTERNATIONAL PRESTIGE

OUR LACK OF ATTENTION TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

DEMOCRACY HAS BECOME LESS ATTRACTIVE TO DEVELOPING NATIONS

The endorsement correctly points out that McCain has given up the reputation he once had of a moderate, free-thinking Republican.

“Since the 2004 election, however, McCain has moved remorselessly rightward in his quest for the Republican nomination. He paid obeisance to Jerry Falwell and preachers of his ilk. He abandoned immigration reform, eventually coming out against his own bill. Most shocking, McCain, who had repeatedly denounced torture under all circumstances, voted in February against a ban on the very techniques of “enhanced interrogation” that he himself once endured in Vietnam—as long as the torturers were civilians employed by the C.I.A.

“On almost every issue, McCain and the Democratic Party’s nominee, Barack Obama, speak the generalized language of “reform,” but only Obama has provided a convincing, rational, and fully developed vision. McCain has abandoned his opposition to the Bush-era tax cuts and has taken up the demagogic call—in the midst of recession and Wall Street calamity, with looming crises in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—for more tax cuts. Bush’s expire in 2011. If McCain, as he has proposed, cuts taxes for corporations and estates, the benefits once more would go disproportionately to the wealthy.”

The endorsement also recognizes that Obama has more depth on the significant issues – from the economy and the environment to international relations and policy.

The New Yorker also recognizes that the election of Obama is vital in order to restore a semblance of balance in the U.S. Supreme Court. It cannot be allowed to slip more to the right, as John McCain promises it would.

Quite dramatically, the endorsement essay raises the question about which man we would prefer to see inherit the problems the current President will turn-over on inauguration day – two wars and a busted economy! Which man? The magazine loudly says: Obama!

Which man is better suited to repair our tattered reputation?

“Obama is also better suited for the task of renewing the bedrock foundations of American influence. An American restoration in foreign affairs will require a commitment not only to international coöperation but also to international institutions that can address global warming, the dislocations of what will likely be a deepening global economic crisis, disease epidemics, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and other, more traditional security challenges. Many of the Cold War-era vehicles for engagement and negotiation—the United Nations, the World Bank, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—are moribund, tattered, or outdated. Obama has the generational outlook that will be required to revive or reinvent these compacts. He would be the first postwar American President unencumbered by the legacies of either Munich or Vietnam.

“The next President must also restore American moral credibility. Closing Guantánamo, banning all torture, and ending the Iraq war as responsibly as possible will provide a start, but only that. The modern Presidency is as much a vehicle for communication as for decision-making, and the relevant audiences are global. Obama has inspired many Americans in part because he holds up a mirror to their own idealism. His election would do no less—and likely more—overseas.”

The ultimate question, however, has to do with character and the New Yorker makes no bones about it. On this issue the editors of the New Yorker feel that “Obama is clearly the stronger of the two.” About McCain, the magazine hits hard:

“A willingness to pander and even lie has come to define his Presidential campaign and its televised advertisements. A contemptuous duplicity, a meanness, has entered his talk on the stump—so much so that it seems obvious that, in the drive for victory, he is willing to replicate some of the same underhanded methods that defeated him eight years ago in South Carolina.”

The essay condemns, with strong words, McCain’s choice of a running mate as a revelation of his cynicism.

“Palin has no business being the backup to a President of any age, much less to one who is seventy-two and in imperfect health. In choosing her, McCain committed an act of breathtaking heedlessness and irresponsibility.”

The endorsement is mighty strong and beautifully written. It builds to a grand crescendo that I must not steal and place here. You ought, yourself, go the magazine’s web site and read it. This one sentence is a part of that conclusion:

“The election of Obama—a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of twenty-first-century America—would, at a stroke, reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home.”

Refresh the Spirit of the Nation
What a wonderful thought! Never in my life time has the nation more needed such refreshing; and perhaps, in fact, never in its history (which includes some mighty desperate moments).

Frankly, I’d click on the hyperlink for the magazine just to see the publication’s wonderful illustration by Tom Bachtell.

Obama Wins According to Strömberg

The Strömberg Model is highly praised by election experts!
by Charlie Leck

I am looking at David Strömberg’s election predictions. You may remember that I wrote about Stromberg in a blog back in early June. I told you about Strömberg’s uncanny ability to project election victories based on his creative and highly unusual prediction model. In that blog I quoted Justin Wolf this way:

"The Strömberg model is, in my view, the leading quantitative election-forecasting model — both parsimonious and sophisticated. By building up forecasts state-by-state based on a slew of economic and political factors (details here), his model can not only predict who will win, but also the likelihood that each state will be pivotal. In turn, this makes David's approach ideal for campaigns trying to figure out where to direct campaign resources."

And, I promised you a few weeks ago that I’d analyze Strömberg’s numbers and report them to you.

Here’s where Strömberg currently is at on the crucial swing states in the upcoming presidential election.

Florida
He has McCain winning rather handily.

Ohio
Stromberg predicts an Obama win by about 2 points.

Michigan and Pennsylvania
His model indicates that Obama will win going away!

Virginia
McCain, according to Stromberg, wins going away!

Indiana
goes to McCain

Colorado, California, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota
are all large Obama wins!

Maryland
surprisingly goes strong for Obama

Nevada
As a surprise, Stromberg has Nevada going quite strongly for Obama

The rest of the states go in Strömberg’s model as they go in current poles.

In the Northeast, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine
are all strong Obama victories

Delaware
goes, of course, strongly to Biden/Obama

In the Northwest, Washington and Oregon
both go very strongly to Obama

All the southeastern states, including West Virginia and North Carolina follow Florida
and go to McCain

All the south, including Missouri and Texas,
goes without exception to McCain

The Dakotas, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho
all go to McCain

Arizona
to McCain

New Mexico
to Obama

Alaska
goes to McCain/Palin

Hawaii
is overwhelmingly for Obama

The Results
If the Strömberg model is correct, Obama will win by a landslide (324 electoral votes to 214 electoral votes – while 270 are needed for victory).

Strömberg has received praise from many people for his election prediction models (to remind you again, the model is not based on polls). Want to know more? Go to his web site.

I’ll have this blog printed out and in front of me on election night, as the votes come in, to see how close Strömberg is to getting it right! If you’re an Obama supporter, as I am, you’ve got to hope that Strömberg has nailed it!

Worried about voter fraud stealing Ohio?
If you're worried that Ohio will some how slip away from the Democrats again due to voter fraud (as it probably did in 2004), you aren't alone. The Obama campaign has built a strategy that will put observers all over the state to watch the results and, hopefully, spot any smelly tactics. Recently, the courts in Ohio slapped down a Republican attempt to nullify a law that makes voter registration simpler. It's a process that was originally signed into law by Ohio's former Republican Governor, Robert Taft.
[Here's a story out of Toledo about the court's action.]

If you are an Obama supporter,
get involved and don’t sit on the sidelines – right up to election day. There are many ways to do it. If you are registered at Obama’s web site, as a supporter, you should be getting regular emails about how to be involved – beyond giving money! Obama’s organization will even cover many of your expenses (during the last four days of the campaign) to get you into the target states to do work for him. This is the way a democracy really works! It goes far beyond voting. It relies on the actual involvement of people in support of their candidates.

Children! Listen Up!

If I could teach them but one thing…
by Charlie Leck

How very much I would like to be a wizard at inspiring and uplifting children. If I could do it, I would ask to speak with my daughter’s 7th grade class in that school in Harlem. She teaches there on assignment from Teach for America, a quite extraordinary organization that recruits highly motivated and successful students from America’s top universities and colleges.
I would tell them that books could be the most important element in their lives and that learning to read them well would be an open door to extraordinary success for each of them.

When I was a wee lad, a cousin of mine, actually two years younger than I, taught me the importance of reading well. She hammered home the idea that anyone who can read well can learn anything – that there are no barriers or impediments that the good reader cannot overcome. It is probably the single most important gift anyone ever gave me; for, after that, I concentrated with all my might on honing my reading skills. I became so acquisitive that I often drove my parents crazy with my questions.

I read vociferously. The more I read, the more I enjoyed it. The more I read, the better I got at it. I learned to never pass over a word I didn’t understand [such as acquisitive, learning that there is an element of greed to its meaning]. The dictionary was my constant companion. Reading literature became an astonishing pleasure for me. Books were ubiquitous! My parents, far from moneyed people, never objected to purchasing them for me.

In college, I ran into two wonderful professors who sharpened my reading even further. One taught me to read fiction with more understanding and purpose; the other taught me how to dissect non-fiction into its presuppositions, thesis and argument. Again, quite spectacular gifts that would last me a life time!

In this modern era, my wife goes through far more books than I because she wanders about listening to them on her iPod – driving her car, working with her animals, cleaning the house and walking the dog. She listens to book after book, after book. I consider it cheating.

My love for picking up a well bound book – one that is neatly designed and uses lovely typefaces – is one of my tastiest adventures. I love the feel of a book in my hand. I love the thrill of turning the pages and watching the book diminish in size before my eyes. It is easy to go back and reread a particularly good or difficult paragraph when one has a book in one’s hand. It is difficult to reach for a dictionary while one is driving down the freeway. Yet, I admire my wife for the sheer volume of books she consumes in the time that I work my way through one of them.

I am now finishing up David McCullough’s wonderful book, Truman (given to me for my birthday by the daughter who teaches that 7th grade class). McCullough is an extraordinary historian. Thank goodness, for me, that he is also an exceptional writer. The words in his sentences flow beautifully and mix together to make wonderful and compelling stories. He makes it simple for the reader to see where he is going and each chapter builds to a climax that is nearly like fiction.

Many years ago, when I was about the age of my daughter’s students, my sweet cousin put a copy of The Old Man and the Sea in my hands and virtually begged me to read it slowly and enjoyably. She taught me how to keep a dictionary nearby and how to use it. Oh, how old Santiago became such a hero of mine. How compelling was his emotional experience upon the sea! How victorious Santiago was in defeat!

This classic by Hemingway is a small, short book – more a novella than a novel – such a perfect size to start out with as a youngster. I remember running to my father to tell him all about this great fisherman. It led to hours of conversation with him about his own days of fishing upon the sea. My mother was so excited about the joy she saw in my eyes that, from then on, she made sure there were good books within my reach. So ironic that, at the closing of her life, I would sit by her bedside and read aloud to her to ease her pain and help her get through her awful days more peacefully.

My daughter just successfully completed a fund raising drive that raised enough money to order a lot of wonderful books for her young readers. Of course, when I saw the purpose of the fund raiser, I jumped all over it and made my contribution. Quite uncontrollably, I asked her siblings to chip in funds and I also sent information about the drive to some of my dear friends. I cannot thank all of them enough for being so generous.

Now, if only I could inspire those boys and girls to become one with those books and to explore the adventures that await them within those pages.

It is so pleasurable to be surrounded constantly by my friends. Here in my writing loft I have, all around me, shelves and shelves of wonderful, exciting books. Even at my age I am constantly learning new things from them. How I would like to share this feeling -- this excitement -- with my daughter's students.

END

COMMENTS

Comment from Fred

charlie,
thank you for today's blog...you've reminded me that the old man is my most ever favorite book. i hardly ever re-read a book...there have only been a few...i never tire of the old man.... and it's the only book that i ever read aloud...and i don't no why, but hearing the words, they rang like poetry, and i loved doing it.

i read my son to sleep, some nights, with the poetry of robert service, and i know he went off dreaming of cold wind and warm fires with dan mcgrew and sam mcgee. all good poetry deserves to be read aloud and to someone you love.

and finally, you reminded me of the days and weeks i spent reading zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance. i didn't just read it...and i don't remember if it came before or after my first bike...but it ignited my love for ... and gave life to...hondas of a certain age and feel. and it led me on many bike trips following him...riding next to pirsig (as it were) on the same roads (really) and feeling the same dry wind and tasting the air and rain and leaves he tasted. and pirsig also shared his two mind journeys...first his relationship with his son and then his journey of madness and the search for himself. what a gift.

that was nice to think about...and thanks also for the invite last week to help with your daughter's project...there are very few places now a days where i choose to share my limited resources, but that invite joined kiva and oboma...and yesterday i got an email that the effort was successful and thanks...and thanks to you.

f
Fred J. Kamm
Wheat Ridge, CO

Press Won’t Let You See the Real McCain! Why?

John McCain doesn’t have the character, intelligence, talent or ability to be President of the United States. It is a fearful prospect!
by Charlie Leck

I have a few readers who really keep me on my toes. They also supply me with good information and reading suggestions. Scott, one of my most helpful readers and, obviously, well informed and well read, suggested I tell you all about a recent article in Rolling Stone Magazine.

“This is the story of the real John McCain, the one who has been hiding in plain sight. It is the story of a man who has consistently put his own advancement above all else, a man willing to say and do anything to achieve his ultimate ambition: to become commander in chief, ascending to the one position that would finally enable him to outrank his four-star father and grandfather.”
[Make Believe Maverick, by Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone Magazine]

Wow! I read the story and you should too!

There’s too much out there about John McCain that isn’t coming out. This is a man who has lived a rather empty, vacuous life. The nation should know more about him. I actually tremble sometimes, thinking about what our nation will stand for under this man. You know, we don’t have much left to back up our tough talk. We will be like the massive bully who gets punched into reality one day by the kid who used to be a 90 pound weakling.

In the next few weeks, you will see the real John McCain. He knows now that he cannot win on the issues. He cannot beat Barack Obama in his town hall meetings or in aggressive, honest debate. So, his campaign will now unleash the crap – the swiftboat stuff – and try to scare the electorate. It began with Palen’s attack about Obama being friends (buddies) with terrorists. She’s quite a gal. She didn’t even blush when she said it. She stiff eyed the cameras that were recording her.

So, read the Rolling Stones story and pass it on to your friends. Get everyone we can to read the story.

“In its broad strokes, McCain's life story is oddly similar to that of the current occupant of the White House. John Sidney McCain III and George Walker Bush both represent the third generation of American dynasties. Both were born into positions of privilege against which they rebelled into mediocrity. Both developed an uncanny social intelligence that allowed them to skate by with a minimum of mental exertion. Both struggled with booze and loutish behavior. At each step, with the aid of their fathers' powerful friends, both failed upward. And both shed their skins as Episcopalian members of the Washington elite to build political careers as self-styled, ranch-inhabiting Westerners who pray to Jesus in their wives' evangelical churches.”
[Dickinson, as above]

Remember now, McCain has tried to run for this office before. He’s run in the center, on the left and on the right. He’s tried anything. Now he’s going all out.

"He has embraced those he once denounced as ‘agents of intolerance,’ promised more drilling and deeper tax cuts, even compromised his vaunted opposition to torture. Intent on winning the presidency at all costs, he has reassembled the very team that so viciously smeared him and his family eight years ago, selecting as his running mate a born-again moose hunter whose only qualification for office is her ability to electrify Rove's base. And he has engaged in a ‘practice of politics’ so deceptive that even Rove himself has denounced it, saying that the outright lies in McCain's campaign ads go ‘too far’ and fail the ‘truth test.’”
[Dickinson, as above]

It is quite interesting to read the real story of his military prisoner-of-war experience. McCain, by his own admission, saved his life by telling his captors he was the son of an admiral. Against the code of conduct, he also shared plenty of other information. McCain was much less of a hero than his current day legend leads us to believe.

“In the company of his fellow POWs, and later in isolation, McCain slowly and miserably recovered from his wounds. In June 1968, after three months in solitary, he was offered what he calls early release. In the official McCain narrative, this was the ultimate test of mettle. He could have come home, but keeping faith with his fellow POWs, he chose to remain imprisoned in Hanoi.

“What McCain glosses over is that accepting early release would have required him to make disloyal statements that would have violated the military's Code of Conduct. If he had done so, he could have risked court-martial and an ignominious end to his military career. "Many of us were given this offer," according to Butler, McCain's classmate who was also taken prisoner. "It meant speaking out against your country and lying about your treatment to the press. You had to 'admit' that the U.S. was criminal and that our treatment was 'lenient and humane.' So I, like numerous others, refused the offer.

"He makes it sound like it was a great thing to have accomplished," says Dramesi. "A great act of discipline or strength. That simply was not the case." In fairness, it is difficult to judge McCain's experience as a POW; throughout most of his incarceration he was the only witness to his mistreatment…
[Dickinson, as above]

Now, the material above deals only in a cursory way with McCain and the Navy. Dickinson’s account goes into much greater depth about this, about McCain’s very selfish divorce from his first wife, his extraordinary affair with his current wife, his raging temper, the advantages and favoritism he enjoyed in the military, and the preposterous birth of his political career.

You really need to set aside a solid hour so you can read this long, long article in great detail.

A real-life picture of John McCain should be drawn by the media and one needs to wonder why it isn’t when such casual little relationships Senator Obama has had earns major headlines.

The Keating Five
Dickinson will tell the story for you of McCain’s relationship with Charlie Keating in such a way that you can only shake your head in disbelief that McCain could wave this off as nothing more than Keating’s infatuation with military heroes.

“Charlie Keating, the banker and anti-pornography crusader, would ultimately be convicted on 73 counts of fraud and racketeering for his role in the savings-and-loan scandal of the 1980s. That crisis, much like today's subprime-mortgage meltdown, resulted from misbegotten banking deregulation, and ultimately left taxpayers to pick up a tab of more than $124 billion. Keating, who raised more than $100,000 for McCain's race, lavished the first-term congressman with the kind of political favors that would make Jack Abramoff blush. McCain and his family took at least nine free trips at Keating's expense, and vacationed nearly every year at the mogul's estate in the Bahamas. There they would spend the days yachting and snorkeling and attending extravagant parties in a world McCain referred to as "Charlie Keating's Shangri-La." Keating also invited Cindy McCain and her father to invest in a real estate venture for which he promised a 26 percent return on investment. They plunked down more than $350,000.”
[Dickinson, as above]

Dickinson will also take you on an extraordinary tour of McCain’s political record and show you how easily McCain’s political loyalties could change depending on the particular currents of the time. McCain could maneuver in these currents better than any politician in Washington.

"In the year before his Senate run, McCain had championed legislation that would have delayed new regulations of savings and loans. Grateful, Keating contributed $54,000 to McCain's Senate campaign. Now, when Keating tried to stack the federal regulatory bank board with cronies, McCain made a phone call seeking to push them through. In 1987, in an unprecedented display of political intimidation, McCain also attended two meetings convened by Keating to pressure federal regulators to back off. The senators who participated in the effort would come to be known as the Keating Five.

“‘Senate historians were unable to find any instance in U.S. history that was comparable, in terms of five U.S. senators meeting with a regulator on behalf of one institution,’ says Bill Black, then deputy director of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, who attended the second meeting. ‘And it hasn't happened
since.’

Following the meetings with McCain and the other senators, the regulators backed off, stalling their investigation of Lincoln. By the time the S&L collapsed two years later, taxpayers were on the hook for $3.4 billion, which stood as a record for the most expensive bank failure — until the current mortgage crisis. In addition, 20,000 investors who had bought junk bonds from Keating, thinking they were federally insured, had their savings wiped out.

“‘McCain saw the political pressure on the regulators,’ recalls Black. ‘He could have saved these widows from losing their life savings. But he did absolutely nothing.’”
[Dickinson, as above]

Today, in the shadow of our current financial crisis, John McCain decries the deregulation of restrictions of the financial industry. Dickinson will tell you the story of McCain’s absolute involvement in getting that deregulation through the U.S. Congress. He wasn’t the father of deregulation – perhaps we could call him “a first cousin,” however. Parental honors go to McCain’s advisor, Phil Graham…

“Indeed, if the current financial crisis has a villain, it is Phil Gramm, who remains close to McCain. As chair of the Senate Banking Committee in the late 1990s, Gramm ushered in — with McCain's fervent support — a massive wave of deregulation for insurance companies and brokerage houses and banks, the aftershocks of which are just now being felt in Wall Street's catastrophic collapse. McCain, who has admitted that "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," relies on Gramm to guide him.”
[Dickinson, as above]

McCain is a questionable character in so many ways; yet he always seems to receive favorable treatment from the press. Why? It’s difficult to find an answer. Dickinson tries.

And Dickinson is remarkable on McCain’s famous temper. You shouldn’t miss reading that section. Why don’t we hear more about it from the press? If Obama had evidenced such a temper in his early years in politics, it would be all over the ink and broadcast media. You know it!

“At least three of McCain's GOP colleagues have gone on record to say that they consider him temperamentally unsuited to be commander in chief. Smith, the former senator from New Hampshire, has said that McCain's ‘temper would place this country at risk in international affairs, and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, it should disqualify him.’ Sen. Domenici of New Mexico has said he doesn't ‘want this guy anywhere near a trigger.’ And Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi weighed in that ‘the thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded.’”
[Dickinson, as above]

Again, you tell me why the press doesn’t pick up on this. Why isn’t McCain challenged on it?

Can you image a ‘hawk’ with such a temper becoming President of the United States? Did you hear the question? Can you imagine it?

“McCain used to believe passionately in the limits of American military power. In 1993, he railed against Clinton's involvement in Somalia, sponsoring an amendment to cut off funds for the troops. The following year he blasted the idealistic aims of sending U.S. troops to Haiti, taking to the Senate floor to propose an immediate withdrawal. He even started out a fierce opponent of NATO air strikes on Serbia during the war in the Balkans.

“But such concerns went out the window when McCain began gearing up to run for president. In 1998, he formed a political alliance with William Kristol, editor of the
neoconservative Weekly Standard, who became one of his closest advisers. Randy Scheunemann — a hard-right lobbyist who was promoting Iraqi exile Ahmad Chalabi — came aboard as McCain's top foreign-policy adviser. Before long, the senator who once cautioned against ‘trading American blood for Iraqi blood’ had been reborn as a fire-breathing neoconservative who believes in using American military might to spread American ideals — a belief he describes as a ‘sacred duty to suffer hardship and risk danger to protect the values of our civilization and impart them to humanity.’ By 1999, McCain was championing what he called ‘rogue state rollback.’ First on the hit list: Iraq.”
[Dickinson, as above]

Most sensible Americans consider the Iraq war one of the biggest military and intelligence mistakes our nation ever made. John McCain was a bigger proponent of war with Iraq than even George W. Bush. Dickinson will take you through McCain’s ceaseless efforts to get that war rolling.

You want such a man to be President?

“Indeed, McCain's neocon makeover is so extreme that Republican generals like Colin Powell and Brent Scowcroft have refused to endorse their party's nominee. ‘The fact of the matter is his judgment about what to do in Iraq was wrong,’ says Richard Clarke, who served as Bush's counterterrorism czar until 2003. ‘He hung out with people like Ahmad Chalabi. He said Iraq was going to be easy, and he said we were going to war because of terrorism. We should have been fighting in Afghanistan with more troops to go after Al Qaeda. Instead we're at risk because of the mistaken judgment of people like John McCain.’”
[Dickinson, as above]

Country before politics!

It has lately been John McCain’s battle cry: “Country before politics!” Yet, in fact, John McCain goes with whatever current will carry him faster toward his political goals. Ross Perot’s feelings about McCain are echoed by dozens of national figures who have worked with him.

“‘He ‘is the classic opportunist,’ according to Ross Perot, who worked closely with McCain on POW issues. ‘He's always reaching for attention and glory.’”
[Dickinson, as above]

Dickinson provides you with a litany of McCain’s flip-flops. The flip-flopping accusation probably cost John Kerry the presidency in 2004. The press tore into Kerry for perceived flip-flops. Why is it they don’t touch John McCain on this issue? Can you tell me?

After presenting this long list of McCain’s changing political opinions in order to advance his political interests, Dickinson arrives at the latest and cruelest of them all.

“But perhaps the most revealing of McCain's flip-flops was his promise, made at the beginning of the year, that he would ‘raise the level of political dialogue in America.’ McCain pledged he would ‘treat my opponents with respect and demand that they treat me with respect.’ Instead, with Rove protégé Steve Schmidt at the helm, McCain has turned the campaign into a torrent of debasing negativity, misrepresenting Barack Obama's positions on everything from sex education for kindergarteners to middle-class taxes. In September, in one of his most blatant embraces of Rove-like tactics, McCain hired Tucker Eskew — one of Rove's campaign operatives who smeared the senator and his family during the 2000 campaign in South Carolina.”
[Dickinson, as above]

I’ve tried to entice you to go to the Dickinson article. What more can I say? Please!

END

COMMENTS

Comment from Scott

Charlie,
One of the things that really pissed me off at the RNC was the way that they attacked Obama's record as a community organizer. I think that community organization is a perfectly valid activity for a young graduate interested in making a difference.

What I find ironic is that there disdain may be Obama's greatest asset. How did Obama out compete Clinton with the entire DNC behind her? Community organization.

How is Obama competing in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana and all the other states that trend republican? Community Organization.

Obama is taking the skills he learned and using them to great effect, while the Republicans make fun of those efforts. Talk about out of touch.

Face to Face

A warning to our classmates who are about to reunite after 50 years!
by Charlie Leck and Fred Kamm.

Reality settles in after 50 years apart! It is quite an astonishing thing to come face to face with an old friend – a classmate – for the first time since we were teenagers – for the first time in fifty years (yes, 50 years).

It was a Saturday morning in early October. I was sitting in the little lobby of a comfortable hotel in a Denver suburb. I saw him swoop in through the front door. He stopped quite suddenly when he saw me and I read something in his face. Was it hysteria? Perhaps, it was incredulity. It may even have been horror.

Holy shit! Did I just walk into a horror movie? Old age is one thing, but poor Charlie. Had he been in a car wreck? So that’s what happens when face meets windshield at 70 mph.

Freddy was not what I had expected. He had been a soft, delicate looking guy in high school. He had innocent eyes and a glib smile. Sure, back then he was a little rounded on the edges and appeared squat. But now, he was old, rugged and worn looking –rounded on the edges and squat. My first thought was that I needed to tell him how ridiculously different he looked. I wanted to warn him that he might not want to show at the coming 50th reunion of our class. It could be embarrassing!

I stood. I heard my knees crack and I had a stiff ache in the middle of my back. My first steps forward were not really secure ones. I had a hand stuck out in front of me and I was trying to smile as widely as I could, to hide the sense of shock in my face.

He had both arms out and he was also struggling with a smile. His eyes gave him away, however, and I could see he was stunned by something.

I was stunned by something! I remembered what Charlie looked like 50 years ago. Of course I remembered! How couldn’t I. He kept sending me pictures of himself from the yearbook. And he was pretty good looking back then…sort of like a young prize fighter… after 8 tough rounds. And I always liked that tough street kid look.

I could see that the knuckles of his fingers were bulging and swollen. Instead of shaking hands, we hugged and I patted him soundly on the back. He was greeting me with an aged voice that was crackling and coarse. My friend, this kid who used to play some of the damnedest, most immature practical jokes on all of us, was now an old man. I was embarrassed. What the hell?

What could I say to him? What had happened? I wonder if he’d be insulted if I gave him the name of a good plastic surgeon?

We stepped back and looked at each other. He said something he thought was funny about only knowing me now because my nose was still big and I still had those bulging blue eyes. That didn’t sit too well with me. When I looked in the mirror each day, I still saw that quite good-looking kid who strolled the halls of Roxbury High School with an ice-cream-eating grin on his face. Hell, I was the kid that the McGregor Clothing Manufacturer, over in Dover, chose to come and model clothing for them at their buyers’ conventions. Same old guy I saw in the mirror!

In backing up, my foot tangled with the leg of the chair I had been sitting on. I lost my balance and I collapsed heavily on to the seat, catching myself with a hand against the table to prevent any further fall. Fred was shaking his head and his face flushed red. I thought he might be having a hot-flash of some sort.

I was blushing…thinking about how cute Charlie used to be when he dressed up in those sissy clothes.

He refused a cup of coffee and said we ought to “roll.” He wanted to get over to the dog-park where we could walk ‘Buddy and Puppy.’ We could have a nice brunch after we walked the dogs, he said. He sauntered ahead of me, toward the door and the parking lot. His body was hunched a bit and his shoulders rolled forward. He walked like a man with tender ankles. He was an old man now and I wondered if I should really have brought along the camera that I carried in my hand. I didn’t want to embarrass him.

I had a nice rental car and I offered to drive. I got terribly nervous when I was riding along with older drivers.

“No,” Fred insisted, “you don’t want my dogs in your car.”

When I saw the size of Puppy, a massive Great Dane, I agreed with Fred. Let him drive.

Here we were in the van…the four of us. Charlie and I, Buddy the chocolate lab and Puppy…150 pounds if very masculine Great Dane. I think Charlie was getting nervous as Puppy checked him. Hmm, Puppy was drooling.

I was chatting rapidly as the car rolled along. I guess it was a nervous stammering. I was trying to hide the sense of embarrassment I still felt. Is this what 50 years really does to some people? Yellowing teeth! Reddened eyes! Sagging skin! Enlarged ears! Jowls! To keep from staring at him, I tried to fix my eyes on the road ahead. My arthritis was acting up and I tried to squirm into a more comfortable position. I farted. I hadn’t expected it to be so loud.

“Jesus,” Fred said tartly.

Suggesting it was a little warm in the car, I cracked a window just a bit. Fred forced his window open more widely.

“Dogs are a little stinky,” I said. Fred laughed sarcastically.

God, Charlie must have eaten one of those imitation Mexican burritos they have in Minnesota.

It was a beautiful Colorado morning. Fred’s big van swung around turns and moved in determination toward the park.

“I’m getting current photographs of lots of our classmates,” I said to him. “You know, for the reunion booklet I’m putting together. Wait ‘til you see them. They sure have gotten old. Some of us are still looking young and good, though. You should see Marion! She looks great. So do Val and Joannie and Barb Hegedus. Per is as handsome as he was in high school and George List still looks great. Some of us hold on to it okay.”

Oh really, Per is as handsome as he was in high school? I always liked that Scandinavian street boy look…

“Frankie Pasquale looks good, too. Old, but good! Connie passed away. What a good looking chick she was, heh? Kenny Freund still looks young and handsome. Hopper still looks good, too. Charlie Apostolik looks as Greek as a guy can be. Imagine! Charlie had that sweet, innocent face. Now he’s rugged and tough looking. George Fischer’s a Methodist preacher. He’s got a thick, rugged looking beard. He looks like the Pope in his robes and all. He’s got some years on him, man, but he looks distinguished in those gowns. Ginny O’Rourke is as funny as ever. I talked to her on the phone. She never stops laughing. She must be on something! Carol Rademacher looks pretty good, too, and so does Readie.”

“Steneck and Peg are academics, you know. They’re always busy going to seminars and conferences all over the world. We knew it – even way back then, didn’t we?”

“Paula and Charlie got a divorce. Never figured that one. She remarried. She’s lookin’ good, man. Liz Metzger looks great, too. Spent most of her life coaching. I guess we could have gotten that figured right, too.”

I was still chattering on wildly, afraid to slow down. Maybe if I told him about more of the kids who still looked great, he’d see why he probably shouldn’t go. The car was pulling into a parking lot. The dogs grew excited. I saw some young woman jogging along a path. It was good to see someone young. It regenerated me.

Something’s wrong here. “ Kenny Freund still looks young and handsome. Hopper still looks good, too. Charlie Apostolik looks as Greek as a guy can be.” Hopper never looked that good!

The car was safely parked and we struggled out of it and took the dogs down a long a narrow path that led deeper into the thick, rustic park. Buddy and Puppy were excited and they moved quickly along the path. My knees began to burn. I wanted to stop for a short rest, but Fred and his dogs kept plunging ahead. I didn’t want to show any signs of weakness, so I pushed forward too.

He said something to me. Was it a question? I didn’t quite hear him. I didn’t want to speak at the moment. I was breathing quite hard and I knew he’d hear my gasps if I spoke, so I turned, as if to look around, and stopped, as if I needed to in order to properly examine the surroundings. I caught my breath.

“Great park,” I said quickly, still looking away.

“What’d you say?” he shouted to me. “I have a little trouble hearing you know. You’ve got to speak up. You’re mumbling.”

Why was he mumbling? Maybe the plastic surgeon could help with those big floppy lips.

We got to the shore of a rapidly moving stream. The dogs went down to it to play. It gave us a chance to pause and I relished the rest.

Fred explained the creek and told me where it came from and how much the dogs liked to play in it. I let him go on and on while my breathing returned to normal.

I began to look at Fred more clearly as he talked about the park and the stream that rolled through it. He began to come into focus, so to speak. He didn’t appear too old at all. His eyes still had a sparkle. His ears were actually almost normal. The hair growing in his nose didn’t seem so distracting.

“You’re lookin’ good too, man,” I said to him. “You’ll do all right at the reunion. Everyone will know you. You’ll do fine.”

I began remembering. I was transported back to the hallways of Roxbury High School. I could see the sweet, young girls in their crinolined skirts, soft sweaters and saddle shoes. The boys had swirled waves glued in place in the hair over their foreheads. Somewhere down the hallway, Nancy Wallace was screaming and laughing. Locker doors banged shut. A handful of girls ran to get to a classroom on time. They giggled loudly as they went. Some massive football players spread out across the hallway to impede their progress. Their giggling increased. The boys provided a slim crack in their ranks to let the girls squeeze through one at a time. Fred, Nick and Kenny were walking a few steps ahead of me. Rog moved up beside me and put a hand on my shoulder. He asked if I was ready for the test that Mrs. Call planned to give us. I looked over at him and made a clicking sound with my cheek and winked. It was something my old man did.

Drew Lindstedt hollered from way down the hallway.

“Hurry up you guys! The bell’s gonna ring!”

Freddy pushed one of his hands high into the air, giving Lindstedt the finger. We all laughed as if it was the funniest thing in the world. Then, following Fred’s lead, we all slowed our pace a bit, as if to show we weren’t afraid of any English teacher.

Fred was our master of ceremonies. Our yearbook called him the teachers’ nightmare. He wasn’t. He made them laugh the same way he humored us. They loved him and we did, too.

When we got to the end of the hall, where Lindstedt was standing, we each gave him the finger, holding it up against our chest as we passed by him and into the classroom. Lindstedt never stopped smiling and he took our hand gesture as a compliment – a sign of affection.

Suddenly I was back there in the park, standing quietly and watching the dogs frolicking in the water. Freddy was laughing at them and calling to them. He was the same old Freddy. Fifty years and nothing’s changed. He was looking into the stream and thinking seriously about something.

Well, it’s true, 50 years go by, and we all change. I just sat there and remembered all those missed moments. I was smiling now, and drooling.

The Ebbs and Flows

Watching the Polls…
by Charlie Leck

As we thought, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas and Arizona – the A states – are all solidly GOP.

The C states present something of a surprise, however. At the moment California, Colorado and Connecticut are all blue states. Obama has a solid 13 point lead in California and, surprisingly, he has a big lead in Connecticut. The Colorado race is a tie right now when you factor in the margin of error possibility.

Obama has more than a 40 point lead in the H state and McCain has a similar lead in the I state of Idaho. Obama has increased his lead big time in Illinois (15 points) and Iowa (9 points). Indiana leans slightly toward McCain. Obama campaign workers will flood Indiana just before the election.

No surprise in the K or L states. McCain by a whopping margin. The G state is also solidly McCain.

The M states are really important:
Maryland – Obama by more than 20 points.
Massachusetts – Obama by more than 20 points.
Michigan – Obama by 7 to 11 points depending on who is reporting.
Minnesota – Obama by 8 or 9 points (a local poll has it at 11 points).
Missouri – McCain by 5 points.
Mississippi – McCain by 8 points (and that is something of a surprise)
Montana -- McCain by 11 points.

Nebraska and Nevada are solidly behind McCain (though Nevada might be turned around).
New Mexico is a toss-up.
New Hampshire shows McCain with a tiny lead (2 points).
New Jersey is a 13 point lead for Obama.
New York is the same as NJ.
North Carolina is leaning slightly toward McCain. Reports are that Obama is sending workers in.

Ohio is even-steven and this is where the battle will be joined.
McCain will run plenty of dirty, smear ads in Ohio
McCain will spend enormous funds here.
Obama is trying to mobilize the strong college campus population.

Oregon shows a few point lead by McCain.

Pennsylvania is showing a surprising 8 point lead for Obama. McCain will need to spend big money here, too.

The S states are already in the McCain column as are the T and U states.

Obama has a current 3 point lead in the V state but it sways back and forth.

The W states are crucial.
Washington is a head-knocker right now but Obama is sending workers in.
West Virginia is in the McCain column.
Wisconsin is leaning toward Obama but it is close.
Wyoming is in the McCain column already.

So, what the deal?

Did you notice that I skipped the F state? It’s been a dead tie. Here’s what’s going to be different. Obama is organizing hard and will put on a campaign in FL the likes of which we have never seen. People are going in and so is money. He must get out the black vote and the young vote. He must work on the Hispanic vote, conceding the senior vote to McCain. We may get a big surprise out of Florida. A story in today NY Times indicates Obama is inching ahead in FL.

If Obama wins any one of the following states, the prize is his!
Florida
Ohio

He could win without those two states but he’ll have to carry…
Virginia
Wisconsin
Washington

If Obama wins Pennsylvania and any two of those five states above, he’s in. If he wins Pennsylvania and either Florida or Ohio, he’s in.

At the moment, the tide favors Obama. The problem comes down to an ever changing tide, however.