Saturday, October 4, 2008

The Ebbs and Flows

Watching the Polls…
by Charlie Leck

As we thought, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas and Arizona – the A states – are all solidly GOP.

The C states present something of a surprise, however. At the moment California, Colorado and Connecticut are all blue states. Obama has a solid 13 point lead in California and, surprisingly, he has a big lead in Connecticut. The Colorado race is a tie right now when you factor in the margin of error possibility.

Obama has more than a 40 point lead in the H state and McCain has a similar lead in the I state of Idaho. Obama has increased his lead big time in Illinois (15 points) and Iowa (9 points). Indiana leans slightly toward McCain. Obama campaign workers will flood Indiana just before the election.

No surprise in the K or L states. McCain by a whopping margin. The G state is also solidly McCain.

The M states are really important:
Maryland – Obama by more than 20 points.
Massachusetts – Obama by more than 20 points.
Michigan – Obama by 7 to 11 points depending on who is reporting.
Minnesota – Obama by 8 or 9 points (a local poll has it at 11 points).
Missouri – McCain by 5 points.
Mississippi – McCain by 8 points (and that is something of a surprise)
Montana -- McCain by 11 points.

Nebraska and Nevada are solidly behind McCain (though Nevada might be turned around).
New Mexico is a toss-up.
New Hampshire shows McCain with a tiny lead (2 points).
New Jersey is a 13 point lead for Obama.
New York is the same as NJ.
North Carolina is leaning slightly toward McCain. Reports are that Obama is sending workers in.

Ohio is even-steven and this is where the battle will be joined.
McCain will run plenty of dirty, smear ads in Ohio
McCain will spend enormous funds here.
Obama is trying to mobilize the strong college campus population.

Oregon shows a few point lead by McCain.

Pennsylvania is showing a surprising 8 point lead for Obama. McCain will need to spend big money here, too.

The S states are already in the McCain column as are the T and U states.

Obama has a current 3 point lead in the V state but it sways back and forth.

The W states are crucial.
Washington is a head-knocker right now but Obama is sending workers in.
West Virginia is in the McCain column.
Wisconsin is leaning toward Obama but it is close.
Wyoming is in the McCain column already.

So, what the deal?

Did you notice that I skipped the F state? It’s been a dead tie. Here’s what’s going to be different. Obama is organizing hard and will put on a campaign in FL the likes of which we have never seen. People are going in and so is money. He must get out the black vote and the young vote. He must work on the Hispanic vote, conceding the senior vote to McCain. We may get a big surprise out of Florida. A story in today NY Times indicates Obama is inching ahead in FL.

If Obama wins any one of the following states, the prize is his!

He could win without those two states but he’ll have to carry…

If Obama wins Pennsylvania and any two of those five states above, he’s in. If he wins Pennsylvania and either Florida or Ohio, he’s in.

At the moment, the tide favors Obama. The problem comes down to an ever changing tide, however.


  1. Charlie,

    Have a look at the new rolling stone article on McCain. Amazing stuff.

  2. Thanks Scott. Thanks to you, I went to Rolling Stone and read the piece. Incredible that folks would settle for John McCain as President. I wrote about the article in today's blog.