Thursday, October 16, 2008

Could it be a Landslide for Obama?

If Obama pulls more than 330 electoral votes it will be considered a landslide! Let it be!
by Charlie Leck

The most conservative estimates right now give Senator Obama 286 electoral votes. He needs 270 for election. These estimates do not include states where it is too close to call – Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.

Should Obama take Florida and Ohio, it is a landslide. Other toss-up states will follow, including Nevada and Indiana. It’s been a long time since a candidate hit 330 electoral votes. It could happen this year. Most polling organizations give Obama a lead in Florida and Ohio.

A landslide will mean that Obama is dragging congressional candidates in with him – the coat-tail affect – and the make-up of Congress will change dramatically.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Missouri and West Virginia were considered solidly McCain. They’ve slipped to a considerable degree as McCain seemed to implode. Those two states are now in the toss-up category.

Washington has been considered a state leaning toward Obama. Polls now put it solidly in the Obama count. Virginia has also moved from a leaner to a solid Obama state.

A lot will depend on how people saw the debate last night. Here’s what I saw. John McCain was swinging wildly, hoping to land a punch – any punch, anywhere. Obama, like the great Ali, “danced like a butterfly and stung like a bee.” By the end of the fight, McCain looked exhausted and worn down. He had thrown everything he had and he had no more.

As Don Hazen wrote on AlterNet:

“But McCain couldn't change at all and, in fact, did worse. His scripted Joe Plumber scenario didn't pay off and left the viewers confused. His attacks about Bill Ayers reduced his favorables consistent with poll results. McCain has been on a losing streak for almost two months, and there is no sign he can break out of his self-imposed straightjacket and dependence on the Rovian tactics that have consistently proved unpopular except for his ever-narrowing hard core base.”
Now the voters decide! Thank goodness for that. In desperation, the McCain campaign organization will need to pull out some nasty swiftboat type ads – and they will. I think it will be a mistake. This time around the American public has decided they don’t want any of that kind of rot again. It worked for the Republicans in 2000 and 2004, and look where it’s gotten us. That’s the attitude of the voting public this time.

Anything can happen in the remaining 19 days before we vote. Anything! The Obama, organization is well funded, however, and they will run the race right to the finish.

My great hope, as you know, is that change is on the horizon and that a great new day will dawn for America is January of 2009 – a day, I guess, I never dreamed I would live to see. My knees wobble from the thought and this certain prayer, this song of my youth, is perpetually in my heart:
“Let it be, let it be, let it be, let it be.
Whisper words of wisdom, let it be.

And when the broken hearted people living in the world agree,
there will be an answer, let it be.
For though they may be parted there is still a chance that they will see,
there will be an answer. let it be.

Let it be, let it be,..

And when the night is cloudy, there is still a light, that shines on me,
shine until tomorrow, let it be.
I wake up to the sound of music, mother Mary comes to me,
speaking words of wisdom, let it be.

Let it be, let it be,..”


  1. Thanks Charlie, you hit the exact note I'm feeling today...more hopeful and less cynical...please, let it be. Fred

  2. NO, thank you, Fred. And thanks for coming so faithfully to this little blogging site. Your comments are always appreciated.