Wednesday, October 1, 2008

How Obama Can Win

Four state-by-state polls that indicate Obama could win!
by Charlie Leck

After writing yesterday’s blog, giving you a friend’s prognosis about Obama’s chances in November, I went to Eric Black’s blog and read his analysis of four polls he keeps up with. It’s a very interesting breakdown and I suggest it to you strongly. He titled the blog “ELECTORAL COLLEGE CHECK-IN: Obama 301, McCain 227.” Remember, 270 electoral college votes are required to win.

“If you examine the polling on the toss-up states, Obama appears to have the easier and more likely path to victory. McCain is not currently ahead in any states that were carried by the Democrats in 2004. Obama leads in four or five states that went for President Bush in 2004 (depending on whose numbers you decide to trust). If he carries the John Kerry '04 states and most of those four or five Bush '04 states in which he is now leading, he will reach the 270 EV necessary to become president.” [Eric Black Ink]
National polls tell us very little, if anything. Please remember! If one candidate or another has a 6 point lead nationally, it is still possible that candidate is behind on a state-by-state basis. That was the reason for such enormous disappointment for Democrats in the last two elections. One must examine state-by-state polls as Black did in the blog I recommend to you.

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