Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Obama Wins According to Strömberg

The Strömberg Model is highly praised by election experts!
by Charlie Leck

I am looking at David Strömberg’s election predictions. You may remember that I wrote about Stromberg in a blog back in early June. I told you about Strömberg’s uncanny ability to project election victories based on his creative and highly unusual prediction model. In that blog I quoted Justin Wolf this way:
"The Strömberg model is, in my view, the leading quantitative election-forecasting model — both parsimonious and sophisticated. By building up forecasts state-by-state based on a slew of economic and political factors (details here), his model can not only predict who will win, but also the likelihood that each state will be pivotal. In turn, this makes David's approach ideal for campaigns trying to figure out where to direct campaign resources."
And, I promised you a few weeks ago that I’d analyze Strömberg’s numbers and report them to you.

Here’s where Strömberg currently is at on the crucial swing states in the upcoming presidential election.

He has McCain winning rather handily.

Stromberg predicts an Obama win by about 2 points.

Michigan and Pennsylvania
His model indicates that Obama will win going away!

McCain, according to Stromberg, wins going away!

goes to McCain

Colorado, California, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota
are all large Obama wins!

surprisingly goes strong for Obama

As a surprise, Stromberg has Nevada going quite strongly for Obama

The rest of the states go in Strömberg’s model as they go in current poles.

In the Northeast, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine
are all strong Obama victories

goes, of course, strongly to Biden/Obama

In the Northwest, Washington and Oregon
both go very strongly to Obama

All the southeastern states, including West Virginia and North Carolina follow Florida
and go to McCain

All the south, including Missouri and Texas,
goes without exception to McCain

The Dakotas, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho
all go to McCain

to McCain

New Mexico
to Obama

goes to McCain/Palin

is overwhelmingly for Obama

The Results
If the Strömberg model is correct, Obama will win by a landslide (324 electoral votes to 214 electoral votes – while 270 are needed for victory).

Strömberg has received praise from many people for his election prediction models (to remind you again, the model is not based on polls). Want to know more? Go to his web site.

I’ll have this blog printed out and in front of me on election night, as the votes come in, to see how close Strömberg is to getting it right! If you’re an Obama supporter, as I am, you’ve got to hope that Strömberg has nailed it!

Worried about voter fraud stealing Ohio?
If you're worried that Ohio will some how slip away from the Democrats again due to voter fraud (as it probably did in 2004), you aren't alone. The Obama campaign has built a strategy that will put observers all over the state to watch the results and, hopefully, spot any smelly tactics. Recently, the courts in Ohio slapped down a Republican attempt to nullify a law that makes voter registration simpler. It's a process that was originally signed into law by Ohio's former Republican Governor, Robert Taft.
[Here's a story out of Toledo about the court's action.]

If you are an Obama supporter,
get involved and don’t sit on the sidelines – right up to election day. There are many ways to do it. If you are registered at Obama’s web site, as a supporter, you should be getting regular emails about how to be involved – beyond giving money! Obama’s organization will even cover many of your expenses (during the last four days of the campaign) to get you into the target states to do work for him. This is the way a democracy really works! It goes far beyond voting. It relies on the actual involvement of people in support of their candidates.

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