Sunday, September 14, 2008

The Republican Bounce

Watching the Polls
by Charlie Leck

Well, now it begins! We start watching the polls to see what’s happening. One really good political observer, with whom I have an occasional lunch, told me one shouldn’t even begin watching them until, at least, 10 days after the last of the two big endorsing conventions. That means we’ve got a few more days before we start paying attention.

One significant poll yesterday shows McCain taking a lead on Obama. Here in Minnesota the two are absolutely in a dead-tie. Obama earlier had a big lead. This is not unexpected. The Republicans are going to get a bounce from their convention (RNC); and the Democrats could not take advantage of the bounce factor at their own convention (DNC) because the RNC followed it so closely – and McCain shrewdly made his VP announcement on the morning following the DNC.

So, let a few more days go by before you start watching various polls. I am going to make regular reports here whenever there is a significant movement in any of the polls and I’ll send you to the appropriate website so you can analyze for yourself what that movement means.

In a blog sometime ago, I told you about one of the most astute and accurate observers (or election predictors) in the nation (though he’s actually in Sweden) – the Stromberg Model. He’s the one I’ll watch and read the closest. It’s not easy to find Stromberg’s projections, but I’ll keep digging and finding them and reporting them here for you. If you want to read how Stromberg works, go back to that earlier blog and you’ll find a variety of links.

The CBS/New York Times Opinion Poll has shown itself to be extremely accurate. You might want to watch it.

Here are some of the other excellent polls….
  • TIPP (a service to which one needs to subscribe – I’ll pick them up from news services and bring them to you)
  • Newsweek Opinion Poll (then click on ‘politics’ and off you go)
  • This particular site give you a good graphic look at what’s going on state-by-state with a very attractive map of the USA and then a summary of the totals.
Happy poll watching!

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