Thursday, January 7, 2010

Don’t Focus on Dodd

Democrats' fragile majority could be lost in this November’s election!
by Charlie Leck

Well, here we go again!
Putting on the show again!
We’ll be checking in again!
Hoping you’re on our side…
Can you believe it? The 2010 election is just around the corner. The other day, because of my criticisms of Obama’s first 11 months in office, one of my readers has actually called me “a Republican in donkey’s clothing.”

Oh, boy! There are some mighty important elections out there. Though it would be nice if Democrats could win over some of the Republican Senate seats, I don’t think it’s going to happen. There’s a danger, in fact, that it might go the other way. When you look at the list of Senate races at the bottom of this blog, take note of how many of the Republican seats are safe – compared to the safe Democratic seats.

One hope, of course, revolves around the economy. If things really heat up in the next four or five months and both Wall Street and Main Street get much healthier, then there is a chance for the Democrats to score big.

A great deal of the focus will center on the race for Christopher Dodd’s Senate seat in Connecticut. By the time you read this, Dodd will probably have announced his decision not to run again. That will please Democratic Party leaders because they fear Dodd could not be reelected even in this heavily Democratic state. It likely means that Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat of great popularity and the current State’s Attorney General, will get to run and should win.

The seat to really watch is out in North Dakota. The current Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan has indicated he will not seek reelection. That will make this evenly split state a major concern for progressives. Many of us will send some money up there to try to help out in the election, but the Republican Party has targeted this under-populated state to get big campaign funds. It will be interesting to count the bucks and see how many dollars are spent for each resident of this state just to the northwest of us here in Minnesota.

In July of 2008 the census counters reported North Dakota’s population at 641,481. That was a significant decrease in the population counted in the previous census; it was caused by more deaths than births and a significant exodus out of the state. It is not outlandish to suppose that each party will spend far in excess of ten times the population of the state in dollars – not outlandish at all and really quite a conservative estimate. There’s gonna be some gold up thar’ in them high plains for somebody! The owners of the state’s broadcast industry are lickin’ their chops!

There will not be a Hispanic or African-American factor in North Dakota. Less than two percent of the state is Hispanic and only a tenth of one percent is black. Native Americans make up about five percent of the population and over 92 percent are pale-faces.

There are approximately 14,000 students and a total university community of about 16,000 voters at North Dakota State University in Fargo. There are about 1,000 less voters at the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks. You can bet the Democratic Party will work those campuses very hard.

Even if the Democrats win the seat, you can also bet that the new Senator will be a rather conservative Democrat. A progressive Democratic can just not win in North Dakota, just as one cannot win in the states that surround North Dakota to the west and south – Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Of the 36 seats that are up for election to the U.S. Senate this November, 18 are currently held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans.

Other interesting races to watch will be the following:

Roland Burris (retiring Democrat from Illinois) and a very controversial character! The Dems should hold this seat.

George LeMieux, retiring Republican from Florida where the Democrats might smell some possibilities and will spend big, big bucks.

Judd Gregg, retiring Republican from New Hampshire where the Democrats may see some hope.

George Voinovich is the retiring Republican from Ohio and the Democrats will have to go after this one with great fire power. It will be a very close race.

Barbara Boxer, the Democrat incumbent in California who is seeking reelection, will have her hands full in that very unhappy and unsettled state. She needs the economy to turn around quite quickly there.

Arlen Spector, former Republican turned Democrat, is seeking reelection in Pennsylvania. The Republicans badly want this seat and they’ll spend to get it. The national news will cover this one closely.
I think the incumbents, whether Republican or Democrat, in the Senate races in all the other states are pretty safe. Here’s a listing of all the Senate seats up for grabs:

Retiring Democratic Senators:

Burris of Illinois
Dodd of Connecticut
Dorgan of North Dakota
Kaufman of Delaware

Retiring Republican Senators:
Bond of Missouri
Brownback of Kansas
Bunning of Kentucky
Gregg of New Hampshire
LeMieux of Florida
Voinovich of Ohio
Incumbent Democrats running for reelection (*means very probable reelection):

Lincoln of Arkansas
Boxer of California
Bennett of Colorado
*Inouye of Hawaii
*Bayh of Indiana
*Mikulski of Maryland
*Reid of Nevada
*Gillibrand of New York
*Schumer of New York
*Wyden of Oregon
Spector of Pennsylvania
*Leahy of Vermont
Murray of Washington
*Feingold of Wisconsin
Incumbent Republicans running for reelection (*means very probable reelection):
*Shelby of Alabama
*Murkowski of Alaska
*McCain of Arizona
*Isakson of Georgia
*Crapo of Idaho
*Grassley of Iowa
Vitter of Louisiana
*Burr of North Carolina
*Coburn of Oklahoma
*Demint of South Carolina
Thune of South Dakota
*Bennett of Utah
Hold on to your hats! There may be a Senate election race coming to a state near you!

[END Blog Post]

1 comment:

  1. The NY Times, on Saturday, 9 Jan 2010, has run a story that expands on this blog. You can read it at
    Chas Leck