Monday, November 3, 2008

Latest Polling Results on the Day Before!

Depends on WHO takes ‘em….
by Charlie Leck

I do have some breaking news for y’all but I wouldn’t go running to it just yet if I were you. Kick back here for a second. Want a suggestion for something really relaxing and funny to do before Election Day? Well, for one, read Dick Cavett’s blog that was posted on Friday evening (Holloween). Oh Lord, just sit back, relax and read this for pure fun – something bright and fresh by someone fresh and bright. It includes some good zingers like this one…

“But the scariest thing McCain has said — worthy of Scotland Yard’s “Black Museum” of horrors — is one I’ve barely seen commented on.

“I heard him say that when the White House phone rings at the dread 3 o’clock in the morning, you don’t want someone picking it up who has to take time to ‘think and analyze the situation, but someone who will act.’ This, coming from a man with the ‘thinking and analyzing’ traits of a snapping turtle cannot help but bring the Cuban
missile crisis to mind — and what the world might be today had the Arizona senior been in charge. If it (the world) would even be at all.”
Then, just to confirm you’ve made the correct decision about your chosen Presidential candidate, go and watch a few videos by Brave New Films. They may turn your stomach and make you puke on Wednesday morning if you awake to find out John McCain is our next President, but, for tonight, you’ll get a few laughs at his idiocy.

What I must keeping telling myself about Tuesday night is that “the sun will come up tomorrow” no matter what happens.

Now, on to the breaking news about the polls on the day before the day after…

Here are the weekend polling results in the states we care about!

FOX News
(10/29 election polls show Obama lead down to 3 points as McCain surges nation-wide!)

CBS/NY Times
(11/01) poll shows Obama with a double digit lead (+13).CNN/Opinion Research(11/01 shows Obama with a 7 point lead)

Rasmussen Reports
(11/01) puts the lead at on 5 points)

(11/01) has Obama up by 8 or 9 points (depending on their tradition or expanded approach)

ABC New/Washington Post
(11/01) puts Obama ahead by 11 points

What’s a guy to do?
Here’s an idea! Take a look at the polls in the middle. See what they say about the nation-wide surveys!

Obama up by 6 points says Reuters/Zogby and Pew Researach

Hey you Obama supporters, don’t panic! These are all national numbers. You’ve still got to look at things state by state.

On Friday we were looking at hot news in Arizona. Obama had cut deeply into McCain’s big lead in his home state. Now, on Monday morning, McCain has opened up a sizeable lead that makes AZ a certain win for McCain (+11).

Has the McCain Strategy worked in Pennsylvania?
Though PA is still in the Obama column, it looks like McCain’s massive effort is going to make a race of this state. Obama’s lead from a week ago has been cut in half and it’s close enough to the margin of error to just call this a horse-race. Obama by +6. McCain, if he wins in Pennsylvania changes the entire face of this race.In the following reports I’m only going to use the major polling services (except where noted). UPDATE (3:45 p.m. 3 November 2008): The Reuters/Zogby poll through yesterday is in and shows Obama with a +14 lead in PA. That's good news for Obama supporters.

Obama maintains a lead that is between 4 and 6 points. Over the weekend massive get-out-the-vote campaigns were conducted at Colorado University and Colorado State University.

There is a steadiness now about Florida. Obama continues to hold a 4 point lead. Bloomberg calls it a 7 point lead. In fact, this is a dead-heat. Either candidate could win. New numbers will be released on FL this afternoon and I’ll update this paragraph then. UPDATE (3:45 p.m. 3 November 2008): New Rasmussen and Reuters numbers make it clear that FL is an absolute toss up. It's one we'll need to watch come in. Remind you of anything?

A week ago Reuters had McCain up by 6 points. Today? Rassmussen calls it a very slim lead (+3 for McCain). All the others say it’s too close to call.

All the polling organizations call this an Obama victory – ranging from 4 to 7 points. But, you know Ohio! This is where the Dems fear voting fraud may steal the election from them. New numbers will be released on OH this afternoon and I’ll update this paragraph then. UPDATE (3:45 p.m. 3 November 2008): This one gets fuzzier. Rassmussen's number through last night call it dead-even. Rueters-Zogby give Obama a +6 lead. The University of Cinncinnati poll also shows a +6 lead for Obama.

North Carolina
It’s a tie! Either candidate could win here. It’s one we’ll need to watch.

As Virginians go to vote on Tuesday morning, Obama leads in the polls by anywhere from 4 to 5 points. This appears to be a win for Obama. UPDATE (3:45 p.m. 3 November 2008): Rassmussen's new numbers give Obama a +4 lead and Reuters shows it as +6.

It’s dead even in the “show me state” and we’ll only know about the result around 9 o’clock Tuesday night.

Some other states of Interest…

North Dakota
Rasmussen turned in polling numbers this morning that show the bubble has burst for Obama in North Dakota. They say McCain is +13 here and that’s enough for me to put this state in the GOP column.. A poll by North Dakota United Transportation Union shows Obama with a 3 point lead. Another by Minnesota State University at Moorhead (MN) has Obama up by 2. A poll on October 29 by Research 2000 puts McCain up by 1 single point – but Rasmussen’s reputation is too solid as a pollster not to believe them.

New Mexico
Rasmussen has Obama up by 10 points in New Mexico. The Albuquerque Journal gives Obama a 5 point margin. It’s lookin’ good for Obama.

Rasmussen says +5 for McCain. There are no other big time numbers available. Some smaller, local polls make it a very close race. The Republican lead is way down from where it was a month ago, but it looks like McCain will sweep the traditional “real south” (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina). However, if Obama has a surprise for Georgia it will come from the votes of young college/university students.

The lead in the Land of Ten-Thousand Lakes remains 10+ and is in Obama solid win category. In the important Senate race up here, Rasmussen give incumbent Senator Norm Coleman a 4 point lead. The biggest newspaper in the state, the Star-Tribune, which has a reputation for accuracy, shows former Saturday Night Live comedian and comedy writer, Al Franken, with a 4 point lead. So, let’s call it a toss up.

Obama has 238 of the 270 electoral votes needed
Somewhere Obama has to pick up 32 electoral votes [ev]. However, don’t feel sorry for him. John McCain needs to find 122 ev. Even if he wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and Virginia, he’d come up 10 votes short. The three western states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada would be the deciders. McCain would need two of those states to win.

It’s possible for McCain to Win
Though the scenario depicted above is possible, it is highly unlikely.

As an Obama supporter, you only need worry if...
If you see Obama lose any of the states listed below… then that would bring toss-up states into big-time play (keep this list in front of you on election night as the votes get tallied). If Obama loses any of them, it is time to start worrying:

District of Columbia
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island

Now, how will you spend Election Day?
I’ll try to vote first thing in the morning. I’ll be at my voting precinct when the doors open and, hopefully, I won’t be too far back in line. Then I’ll walk the dog for the second or third time of the morning. Then I’ll drive from the country toward town (that’s Wayzata, folks – and most of you non-Minnesotans won’t know how to pronounce it). I’ll stop at Maggie’s and grab a breakfast of ham and eggs and then I’ll drive over to Obama’s local campaign office and put in a shift on the telephone, making sure supporters are getting out to vote.

Tuesday night there’s a party at the home of an old friend. Republicans get the basement this year and Democrats the main floor. We’ll bring one of my wife’s specialties and what almost everyone hopes she’ll bring: Leg of Lamb (Greek style). The theme of the get-together is ‘Obama’ for both Dems and GOPers… and we’re wondering how to fit the leg of lamb into the theme. ‘Lamb of God’ perhaps… sacrificed on the altar for all the sins of the nation. Doesn’t seem quite light enough for a fun party, does it?

To say I’m a nervous wreck would be a vast, great understatement.

Here are some parting thoughts...

The Globe and Mail, Canada’s national newspaper, has endorsed Obama quite emphatically [click here to read the endorsement].

The Canadian endorsement begins this way….
“The United States has been much diminished under the presidency of George W. Bush, its economic clout lessened, its underlying principles of civil liberties and natural justice worn down or violated, its military bloodied, and its international reputation weakened to the point that it is now seen, albeit not always fairly, to play a mainly negative role in the world. The U.S. is in need of a sea change - not merely of the chance to put out of office the Republican party, which has, through its failure of competence and leadership, badly shaken the confidence of Americans and the world. This is also the opportunity for an epoch-defining moment, one with the potential to propel the U.S. forward, ever closer to the noble purposes set out in its founding documents. Let us hope, then, that on Nov. 4 Americans support Barack Obama for president”
In regard to John McCain’s steadiness and ability to lead the nation, the Globe and Mail had this to say…

“But most damaging of all was his decision to pick Sarah Palin as a running mate. It can only be viewed as an act of extreme impulsiveness, an effort to put short-term political advantage ahead of the national interest, achieving an effect of surprise and novelty. It was a decision that lacked even basic due diligence. Mr. McCain is not a young man. He has imperfect health. By placing Ms. Palin next in the order of succession, he effectively put all of his own weaknesses in the display window, and virtually disqualified himself from the presidency.

“Instead of engendering confidence that should accompany his long experience, Mr. McCain has provided cause to wonder just how serious-minded he really is. This has only been compounded by an erratic campaign that has veered from quasi-presidential posturing to vicious attacks. Sadly, Mr. McCain has only diminished his standing during this campaign.”
Extra Special New York Times endorsement
Here’s the concluding paragraph of this extraordinary endorsement by the NY Times [click here to read it all in PDF format].

“Things will go on very much as they have hitherto – except that we shall have honesty and manliness instead of meanness and corruption in the Executive departments, and a decent regard for the opinions of mankind in the tone and talk of the Government on the subject of slavery.” [New York Times, 1860, endorsement of the ‘rail-splitter’ from Illinois, known to everyone as ‘Old Abe’]
Take Note
Studs Terkel has died. I don’t expect you’ll be surprised to find out I’ll be writing about him in the next couple of days. Extraordinary man! Wonderful writer!

“He was the quintessential American writer…He was our Boswell, our Whitman, our Sandburg.” (Dennis Kucinich at
[read the Studs Terkel obit in the New York Times]

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