I and Economic Prediction

     The grandkids, Caroline, Daphne, Rowan and Anna
      were here for the Thanksgiving weekend. What fun!

I know nothing about the economy, though I often fool myself into thinking I do; so don’t listen to me (except for pure entertainment) when I go on and on about economic matters.
by Charlie Leck

In 2008, when the economy went very sour, one of our daughters was looking around to purchase a condo in Manhattan.

“How long will this economy be in this rut?” She asked me in the waning months of 2008.

“Oh, I expect,” I replied, “that things will pick up strongly during this coming winter and certainly by spring.”

Well, it’s a full four years since I offered up that answer and prediction, and the economy is still in serious doldrums and appears stuck in a rut. However, friends of mine are saying (really) that they now expect things to improve in the country. The Congress seems to be in a new mood to cooperate and, if they do, they ought to be able to kick this sick economy in the ass and get it going again.

California, for instance, is showing some signs that its economy is waking up from its four year slumber.

“There is evidence of job growth, economic stability, a resurgent housing market and rising spirits in a state that was among the worst hit by the recession.” [New York Times, 28 November 2012, California Shows Signs of Resurgence!]

We’re seeing some of the same kinds of signs here in Minnesota. The big retail stores seem to be doing well in this after-Thanksgiving shopping moment. And, there is lots of major construction in our downtown Minneapolis area and a couple of new, amazingly large projects have recently been announced. Houses are starting to sell again in both the suburbs and the central city – and prices seem to be moving upward. Car sales have been high for the last year.

It all puts me in a better mood. I really think we’re in full-scale recovery. Federal income taxes will rise for us in the coming year, but we’ve been both expecting and hoping for that. It’s only fair – especially if it will get this economy rolling again (and Democrats have been arguing for over four years that this is just what the economy needs).

By mid-summer we’ll all be singing “Happy Times are Here Again!”

But, just remember, I really don’t know what I’m talking about. I may be so optimistic because the just passed Thanksgiving holiday was so wonderful and I was left in such a good mood by it. Having four grandkids around for a few days can do that to an old guy.

I hope your Thanksgiving was grand also. And, I hope you were also surrounded by lots of love and kin.

The excitement left me pretty worn down. I’ve set aside a couple of hours this afternoon for a long, recuperative nap. I plan to dream of younger years, when I could run along the lakeside for an hour or more and not give it a second thought. Now, the walk down our driveway to the mailbox leaves me aching and breathing hard, but I love life more now than ever and I’ve come to grips with these aches and pains. When my wife slipped out the door this morning, to go tend to some old folks who enjoy her so, she gave me a little peck on the lips. Those little moments mean everything now-a-days – everything! We celebrated our wedding anniversary on Monday. When I wrote across the bottom of the card that I loved her, I meant it as much now as ever – “I love you more now than then, when I did not think I could love you more!”

Do your part, will you? Let’s get this economy rolling again!

_________________________

Why not become a follower?
If you read my blog regularly, why not become a follower? All you have to do is click in the upper right hand corner and establish a simple means of communication. Then you'll be informed every time a new blog is posted here. If all that's confusing, here's Google's explanation of how to do it! If you don’t want to post comments on the blog, but would like to communicate with me about it, send me an email if you’d like.