Friday, August 31, 2012

Key Obama States

David Axelrod and Jim Messina, running the Obama presidential campaign, Obama for America, have identified their key, battleground states!
by Charlie Leck

The Ad Astra Weekly Polls Report
These are the key battleground states…
as identified by Obama for America

Colorado (Obama with a very slight lead)
Florida (Romney with a very slight lead)
Iowa (Even)
Nevada (Even, but the GOP is spending millions here)
New Hampshire (Obama with a lead of a couple of points)
North Carolina (It’s dead even at the moment)
Ohio (Obama has lead, but Romney intends to spend a ton here)
Pennsylvania (Obama with a slim lead and GOP about to spend a lot here)
Virginia (An extremely close call and will be right to the end)

Now, what do the polls really say about these battleground states!
The above comments about those nine states come pretty much out of the Obama campaign reports and their internal polling. National polls show an essentially dead even race, but we’ve explained here before that national polls don’t mean much. What counts is a state-by-state look at the numbers; and a careful look at the leading and respected polls shows the following about the states listed above…

Colorado (Consensus of polls I watch show Obama with a 1 point lead; however, CBS/NYTimes polls shows Romney with a 5 point lead). I respect the CBS/NYTimes poll so I’m calling this state even.
Florida (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 2 to 3 point lead)
Iowa (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 1 to 2 point lead)
Nevada (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 3 point lead)
New Hampshire (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 4 point lead)
North Carolina (Poll consensus shows Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead)
Ohio (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 2 to 3 point lead)
Pennsylvania (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 5 point lead)
Virginia (Poll consensus shows Romney with a very slim lead)

Virginia is a crucial state, but, then, which of these states isn't. Florida appears to be key as far as I'm concerned. I Obama could pull off wins in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, I think its safe to say he'll sin this election. A loss of any one of them will make it nearly dead even. A loss of two of them and he'll need to move out of the White House in January.

Next week’s look at the polls will show the bump the Republicans get from its convention and the following week will show the Democrats’ bump. About mid-September we’ll start to get polls analysis that will really mean something and on which you can start to place your bets. We’ll keep looking at all the states with the higher electoral college votes.

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