David
Axelrod and Jim Messina, running the Obama presidential campaign, Obama for America, have identified their
key, battleground states!
by Charlie Leck
by Charlie Leck
The
Ad Astra Weekly Polls Report
These are the key battleground states…
as identified by Obama for America…
as identified by Obama for America…
Colorado (Obama with a very slight lead)
Florida (Romney with a very slight lead)
Iowa (Even)
Nevada (Even, but the GOP is spending millions
here)
New Hampshire (Obama with a lead of a couple of
points)
North Carolina (It’s dead even at the moment)
Ohio (Obama has lead, but Romney intends to
spend a ton here)
Pennsylvania (Obama with a slim lead and GOP
about to spend a lot here)
Virginia (An extremely close call and will be
right to the end)
Now, what do the polls really say about these battleground
states!
The above comments about those nine states come pretty much out of the Obama campaign reports and their internal polling. National polls show an essentially dead even race, but we’ve explained here before that national polls don’t mean much. What counts is a state-by-state look at the numbers; and a careful look at the leading and respected polls shows the following about the states listed above…
The above comments about those nine states come pretty much out of the Obama campaign reports and their internal polling. National polls show an essentially dead even race, but we’ve explained here before that national polls don’t mean much. What counts is a state-by-state look at the numbers; and a careful look at the leading and respected polls shows the following about the states listed above…
Colorado (Consensus of polls I
watch show Obama with a 1 point lead; however, CBS/NYTimes polls shows Romney
with a 5 point lead). I respect the CBS/NYTimes poll so I’m calling this state
even.
Florida (Poll consensus shows
Obama with a 2 to 3 point lead)
Iowa (Poll consensus shows Obama
with a 1 to 2 point lead)
Nevada (Poll consensus shows Obama with a 3 point lead)
New
Hampshire (Poll
consensus shows Obama with a 4 point lead)
North Carolina (Poll consensus shows Romney
with a 1 to 2 point lead)
Ohio (Poll consensus shows Obama
with a 2 to 3 point lead)
Pennsylvania (Poll consensus shows
Obama with a 5 point lead)
Virginia (Poll consensus shows
Romney with a very slim lead)
Virginia is a crucial state, but, then, which of these states isn't. Florida appears to be key as far as I'm concerned. I Obama could pull off wins in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, I think its safe to say he'll sin this election. A loss of any one of them will make it nearly dead even. A loss of two of them and he'll need to move out of the White House in January.
Next week’s look at the polls will show the bump the Republicans get from its convention and the following week will show the Democrats’ bump. About mid-September we’ll start to get polls analysis that will really mean something and on which you can start to place your bets. We’ll keep looking at all the states with the higher electoral college votes.
Next week’s look at the polls will show the bump the Republicans get from its convention and the following week will show the Democrats’ bump. About mid-September we’ll start to get polls analysis that will really mean something and on which you can start to place your bets. We’ll keep looking at all the states with the higher electoral college votes.
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If you read my blog regularly, why not become a follower? All you have to do is click in the upper right hand corner and establish a simple means of communication. Then you'll be informed every time a new blog is posted here. If all that's confusing, here's Google's explanation of how to do it! If you don’t want to post comments on the blog, but would like to communicate with me about it, send me an email if you’d like.
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