Monday, September 17, 2012

I’m Sticking with My Voting Predictions!

I’m catching flack from a lot of people who say I’m wrong, so I looked again (up one side and down the other) and I think I picked my states correctly. It still comes down to the toss-up states.
by Charlie Leck

I predicted, last Thursday, the states that Obama and Romney will each win on Election Day. Though I’ve had a lot of reaction, pointing out that I’m wrong in this state and that one, I’m sticking to my call. It will come down to the toss-up states.

The following states are ones that I’ve listed as a toss-up and from which President Obama will need to gather 23 electoral votes. Mr. Romney would need 64 votes from them. If Florida falls into the President’s column, it is, essentially, all over.

Colorado (9)
There aren’t any significant recent polling results in Colorado. Obama continues to hold a very insignificant lead. New polls should come in from several of the leading polling organizations by Wednesday.

Florida (29)
In Florida, a key toss-up state, President Obama appears to be creeping ahead. The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama with a 5 percentage point lead. SurveyUSA has him with a 4 point lead.

Iowa (6)
These state has stayed really close for weeks and weeks now. One can’t call this anything but dead-even! Of all the states, this one is the most “toss-up” of all.

Ohio (18)
NBC/WSJ has Obama with a 7 point lead. The Democrats internal polling only has Obama with a 5 point lead. More recent polling in due on this state early in the coming week and that could tell us a lot.

Virginia (13)
Obama has the tiniest of leads here, but that advantage is well within the statistical margin of error and it has to be seen as completely even. Turnout will matter here more than any other of these toss-up states.

Wisconsin (10)
This state remains statistically even. I think the Republicans have an edge here because there will be no question about turning them out to vote. Whatever the weather or whatever the current big story is on Election Day, Wisconsin Republicans are going to work. The Democrats are very dependent on a good, strong turnout of college students across the state. Without them, Obama cannot win here. With them, he could take a surprise victory. Note: Wisconsin may have shown just a little bit of change over the weekend and the movement seemed to be toward Obama. The race, however, continues to deserve the “toss-up” moniker.

New Mexico
showed a rather large movement toward Obama over the weekend, making me more than comfortable with belief that this state will go to the President.

What about North Carolina?
I’ve already awarded North Carolina to Romney. I’ve received a lot of email about that from folks who strongly disagree and claim that NC is still in play. So, I’ve gone back to take another look. The folks who tell me Obama is still viable here are, I must say, either on to something or they are on something! I don’t see it. I’ve looked at 14 different polling organizations and they all indicate a Romney win. Only half of those results are recent and the others are from 60 days ago, but the seven recent ones all agree that Romney will carry this state. It would take something highly surprising for the President to take this state – like nearly every single black voter in the entire state turning out to vote. Even the college student vote in North Carolina runs against the President. I’m leaving it on Romney’s “sure thing” list.

New Hampshire
Other emailers tell me I’ve put New Hampshire on the President’s “sure thing” list too soon; so I’ve gone back and taken another careful look at how things stand up there. I’ve got Obama with a solid 4 point lead that doesn’t seem shakable. It’s been there for weeks and weeks and doesn’t vary. I’m leaving NH where I put it.

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