Friday, September 7, 2012

Thursday Morning Polls

Reading the polls in the afternoon of 6 September 2012 shows us that the race, following the conventions, starts from zero!
by Charlie Leck

The national polls show Obama with a slight lead (2 points but within the statistical error range), but that means nothing. As I’ve said here before, one needs to look at things state by state and count the electoral votes in an attempt to see who will get to the magic 270 votes.

As I’ll do every Thursday, here’s a look at where the election stands. Frankly, beginning next Thursday we’ll start to get a real feel for how the campaigns are going. Until then, we’re just messing around meaninglessly.
            Obama’ solid electoral vote total:     155
            Romney’s solid electoral vote total  150

I’m still contending that the following states will make the difference in the election… (there’s 80 electoral votes at stake in these four states).

Florida                   There’s not a half-point difference one way or the other between these two candidates in any of the significant polls.
Ohio                       Dead even!
Pennsylvania         Leaning toward Obama by 4 or 5 points
Virginia                  Dead even!

The above states are the ones for the campaigns to worry about. If either candidate can win all four of these, he will win the election. Florida still appears to be the state that will decide the election. The Romney campaign is targeting it to get huge amounts of money for advertising. This advertising will be directed toward two key demographics – seniors and Spanish speaking populations.

You can add the following states to toss-up categories (the number following the state is its electoral vote total – 66 in all)…

Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Wisconsin (10)

It's way too early to start making predictions.

As an Obama supporter, I’m worried about Florida. It will take a colossal effort there to win – gargantuan!

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