Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Obama and Virginia

     Virginia Simpson

A new Washington Post poll puts the President ahead in the race by 8 points in Virginia. Don’t bite on it! Virginia is still a toss-up!
by Charlie Leck

So Talking Points Memo posted a blog yesterday that says Obama, according to a Washington Post poll, leads in Virginia by 8 points. Whew!

The Washington Post is a good polling organization, but I don’t trust them this close to home. I’d have to see how they polled and how deeply into Virginia they went.

I don’t buy it. I still call Virginia a toss-up when I look at the polls. And Nate Silver, who I trust as a poll analyst more than any other, said yesterday in a New York Times piece that this is a race to close to call in Virginia. Way too close.

“Virginia’s economy is pretty good, but the state has also been a headache for pollsters. Surveys since July have shown everything from an eight-point Obama lead to a five-point advantage for Romney. In the end, Obama might simply conclude that Florida or Ohio — and not Colorado and Virginia — represents his path of least resistance. If the president can win either Florida’s 29 electoral votes, or Ohio’s 18 plus Nevada’s 6, then Romney’s shot at 270 will become vanishingly thin, and it won’t matter how Virginia and Colorado turn out.

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