Thursday, September 13, 2012

Where the Battle will be Won!

Come Election Day, here’s how I predict things will shake out; and, here is a list of the states I can’t predict!
by Charlie Leck

We are less than 8 weeks away from Election Day. There are three presidential debates coming up and one debate between the vice presidential candidates. Do they mean anything? Indeed they do. I think the election will be won or lost in those debates. Obama has very good leads in 20 states (plus the District of Columbia). If he holds and wins those states, he will be only 23 electoral votes short of winning a second term. There are 85 electoral votes among the six undecided states (see below).

Take a look at all the numbers below and you will see what each candidate must do to finish first.

Romney States
Based on today’s polls, here are the states that Mitt Romney should win (++ means the lead is pretty much overwhelming). I am calling all 23 states in this list a lock for Romney. There are mumblings in the Obama camp that he still has a chance to take North Carolina. He doesn’t!

Alabama (++)                           09
Alaska (++)                               03
Arizona (++)                             11
Arkansas (++)                          06
Georgia (++)                             16
Idaho (++)                                 04
Indiana (++)                             11
Kansas (++)                               06
Kentucky (++)                          08
Louisiana (++)                          08
Mississippi (++)                       06
Missouri (+6)                            10
Montana (++)                           03
Nebraska (++)                         05
North Carolina (+3)               15
North Dakota (++)                 03
Oklahoma (++)                        07
South Carolina (++)               09
South Dakota (++)                  03
Tennessee (++)                        11
Texas (++)                                 38
Utah (++)                                   06
West Virginia (++)                 05
Wyoming (++)                         03
                                     Total       206

These states would put Romney at 206 of the 270 electoral votes needed (64 short)

From the states that I list in the Obama camp (below), Romney is still hopeful he can steal Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan. I don’t think so. If he can’t, he will need to win 64 of the 85 electoral votes of the undecided states. Winning every one of those 6 undecided states, but losing Florida would not be good enough.

Obama States
Based on today’s polls, here are the 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that President Obama is targeting as blue states! He is counting on these states to bring him ever so close to victory. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. These states represent 247 electoral votes.

(++ means the Obama lead is pretty much overwhelming and the number of electors is listed).
California (++)                          55
Connecticut (+7)                      07
Delaware (++)                           03
District of Columbia (++)    03
Hawaii (++)                                04
Illinois (++)                                20
Maine (+4)                                 04
Maryland (+5)                          10
Massachusetts (++)                11
Michigan (+4)                           16
Minnesota (+10)                      10
Nevada (+3)                              06
New Hampshire (+5)             04
New Jersey (++)                      14
New Mexico (+5)                    05
New York (++)                         29
Oregon (+7)                              07
Pennsylvania (+8)                  20
Rhode Island (++)                  04
Vermont (+3.5)                       03
Washington (++)                     12
                                     Total       247

These states would put Obama at 247 of the 270 electoral votes needed (23 short). Of the undecided states (listed below), Obama would have to win Ohio and Colorado or Wisconsin and Virginia or any combination of states that adds up to 23, or, simply, Florida

The above numbers are why I have been saying, all along, that Florida is a crucial state. Ohio is, of course, also very important. If Obama carries those two states he will be reelected. I am not predicting an Obama victory. Winning 23 electors from the list below will be difficult for Obama; however, winning 64 of them will be even more difficult for Romney.

Here’s where the battle will be won… toss-up states!
Here are the toss-up states as of today… (remember, Romney would need to win 64 of these 85 electoral votes, while Obama needs only Florida or any two totaling 23.)

Colorado (Obama +3)            09
Iowa (Even)                                06
Florida (Even)                           29
Ohio (Obama +2)                     18
Virginia (Romney +3)            13
Wisconsin (Even)                     10
                                     Total         85

To recap
Obama is quite sure (not certain) of 247 votes. Romney is locked in on 206 votes. There are 85 votes that are undecided. It’s quite a race.

I’ll go back to this blog after the election and let you know if I predicted Obama’s states, to this point, correctly. There’s no problem with the prediction of Romney’s states; for he will win all the states listed in his column.

Hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent in advertising in Florida over the next 7 weeks by Political Action Committees (PACs) that support Romney. The President will not be able to keep up with that kind of spending.

Several very politically savvy friends of mine are warning me that, if ever, this could be the year that polls mean very, very little. “There is a strong undercurrent out there,” one of them writes to me, “that is just so unpredictable. And, I mean it is on both sides, this undercurrent of rage and fear. It will drive people to voting booths like we haven’t seen in a long, long time.”

Another friend warns otherwise -- that…

“Obama must have an organizational plan to get people out to vote. He has the numbers to win, but there is a chance they will not vote with the enthusiasm they had in 2008. I have no idea how Obama will do this! In the end, we may think the polls were all wrong. I don’t think they are but the vote may not reflect it because of the huge numbers of people who will not vote! Iowa is a good example. College and University students voted there in big, big numbers in 2008. Obama won by 9 percentage points. There is every fear that they will not vote in those numbers this time. On the other hand, you know that Romney’s backers are going to vote for sure.”

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