Friday, September 21, 2012

The Elephant and the Donkey

As of this moment, in spite of the depressing Robert Reich blog I posted this morning, I have to say the Elephant has fallen a bit behind the Donkey in a race toward the finish line (though there is yet a long way to go).
by Charlie Leck

Pretty startling news has come in from Wisconsin and this is absolutely no joking matter. President Obama has taken a significant lead there in a number of reputable polls. This appears to be a reaction to Mr. Romney’s 47 percent comments and a real increase in the amount of work women in Wisconsin are doing on behalf of Mr. Obama. I’m not quite ready to move Wisconsin out of the toss-up category, but I’ll watch for the next few days and then decide.

A Marquette Law School poll, an organization which has done very well in its polling in Wisconsin, has the President up by a whopping 14 points. A CBS/NYTimes poll, done in nearly the same date range, has Obama up by 6 points.

This could be an immense gain for the President and, if he can secure this and nail it down, that would reduce to only 13 the number of electoral votes he needs yet to corral the elephant.

Senate races
Mr. Romney’s questionable statement regarding the 47 percent has also had a significant impact in some Senate races that are really crucial if President Obama is ever going to achieve any of his goals in the next four years. In the Wisconsin race for a U.S. Senate seat, Tammy Baldwin (the Democrat) has moved ahead of Tommy Thompson for the first time by almost 5 points. Elizabeth Warren has moved ahead of Scott Brown in Massachusetts for the first time since polling began. Tim Kane (Democrat) has moved 3 points ahead of George Allen in Virginia. Claire McCaskill (Democrat) has evened her race with Republican Todd Aiken in Missouri and may push ahead in the next few days.

Overall Senate races to watch
Here are some very important U.S. Senate races to keep your eyes on (if there is an incumbent in the race that person is shown in bold print).

Connecticut       Chris Murphy (Dem) against Linda McMahon (GOP)
Indiana              Joe Donnelly (Dem) against Richard Mourdock (GOP)
Maine                 3 candidate race between Angus King (Independent),
                            Cynthia Dill (Dem) and Charlie Summers (GOP)
Massachusetts  Elizabeth Warren (Dem) against Scott Brown (GOP)
Missouri             Claire McCaskill (Dem) against Todd Aiken (GOP)
Montana             Jon Tester (Dem) against Denny Rehberg
Nebraska            Bob Kerry (Dem) against Deb Fischer (GOP)
Nevada               Dean Heller (GOP) against Shelley Berkley (DEM)
North Dakota     Rick Berg (GOP) against Heidi Heitkamp (DEM)
Ohio                    Josh Mandel (GOP) against Sherrod Brown (DEM)
Virginia              Tim Kane (Dem) against George Allen (GOP)
Wisconsin          Tommy Thompson (GOP) against Tammy Baldwin (DEM)

House races
We haven’t been able to determine yet what impact the Romney statements have had on the races for House seats. We’ll keep looking at that phenomenon. Of course, up here, we’re most interested in the Bachmann/Graves race.

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1 comment:

  1. The only poll I have faith in is the telephone pole.